Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible

[baronzeus]

I think coldcalling here is bad. Sure, you will win some pots without hitting your set (straights, etc) but you will also lose with your set some % of the time.

As a general rule, I like to say, if I call this for 1BB now, I need to make sure I extract 7BB from the villain(s) in all the streets combined if I flop my set, or otherwise hit the flop. Did you do that here? Yes, but you got incredibly lucky that the river 4flushed and someone had Ah and that someone was also an idiot. On average, against such players when a normal board comes up which gives you a set, you can only make 5 BB or so total, assuming that both stay till the river. On average, it's a pretty bad call.

Hands like 88 and 99 are borderline, since you'll flop over another low percentage of the time, maybe making this call slightly (if at all) +EV.

[TiltsMcFabulous]

The play on every street of this hand except the river is dreadful.

~ Tilts

[private joker]

I don't think any situation in which we have a hand worth calling 1 bet with but we actualy cold-call 2 bets with is an "awful" or "terrible" mistake.

It can be bad and it can be a leak (I think both of these apply), but the really "awful" mistakes are ones that lead to losing entire pots by folding when we should call, checking when we should bet, or calling when we should raise, etc.

Preflop cold-calls vs. calls are minor mistakes in comparison and I think people are beating up on the OP too much in this hand for an inadvisable cold-call. Sure, his method of debate could be more diplomatic, but in terms of the preflop play itself, it's not off the charts bad.

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think any situation in which we have a hand worth calling 1 bet with but we actualy cold-call 2 bets with is an "awful" or "terrible" mistake.

It can be bad and it can be a leak (I think both of these apply), but the really "awful" mistakes are ones that lead to losing entire pots by folding when we should call, checking when we should bet, or calling when we should raise, etc.

Preflop cold-calls vs. calls are minor mistakes in comparison and I think people are beating up on the OP too much in this hand for an inadvisable cold-call. Sure, his method of debate could be more diplomatic, but in terms of the preflop play itself, it's not off the charts bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is, when a lot of newer players see this type of hand, they overvalue pocket pairs. For my first 10K hands or so I was losing more than I should have with 22-66 because I simply overvalued the worth of hitting a set.

[slavic]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think any situation in which we have a hand worth calling 1 bet with but we actualy cold-call 2 bets with is an "awful" or "terrible" mistake.

It can be bad and it can be a leak (I think both of these apply), but the really "awful" mistakes are ones that lead to losing entire pots by folding when we should call, checking when we should bet, or calling when we should raise, etc.

Preflop cold-calls vs. calls are minor mistakes in comparison and I think people are beating up on the OP too much in this hand for an inadvisable cold-call. Sure, his method of debate could be more diplomatic, but in terms of the preflop play itself, it's not off the charts bad.

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In fairness to the respondents to the OP, he did ask about the cold call.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think any situation in which we have a hand worth calling 1 bet with but we actualy cold-call 2 bets with is an "awful" or "terrible" mistake.

It can be bad and it can be a leak (I think both of these apply), but the really "awful" mistakes are ones that lead to losing entire pots by folding when we should call, checking when we should bet, or calling when we should raise, etc.

Preflop cold-calls vs. calls are minor mistakes in comparison and I think people are beating up on the OP too much in this hand for an inadvisable cold-call. Sure, his method of debate could be more diplomatic, but in terms of the preflop play itself, it's not off the charts bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

one very bad cold call like this one doesn't cost as much as folding a hand that is good. but it costs probably about one sb and situations where incorrect cold calls are possible occur very often. i would guesstimate that the habit to cold call much more frequently than optimal may very well cost 3BB/100 hands or more.

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
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everybody tells you that you are wrong. you should focus on understanding why. do you honestly think that there is any chance that you are correct and everyone else is not?

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It has been true all my life. Why would it be different now? And since the first 30 posts or so of this thread offered no explanation or thought to their responses should I just take their word at face value?

If I do take their word at face value, how does that help me or anyone reading this thread to improve as a poker player? Explanations help to change minds and rid people(myself included) of incorrect thought lines.

I also can dismiss anyone who isn't being constructive in my learning process(Adam)

[/ QUOTE ]

1. many posters gave a reasoning (not 3 page essays, but i doubt it is necessary for a problem as simple as this one).
2. if everybody tells you that you are wrong it is pretty obvious that you are.
3. the one who is least constructive with your learning process is you. you try very hard NOT to understand why you made a mistake.

[LinusKS]

Hamlet - nice post, and I agree the biggest problem with this play is the times you flop a set and still lose.

But I'm not sure about cutting net set profits in half when he loses 25%.

According to my rough math it looks like you should cut his net profits by 37%, not half.

I figured he put 6.5BBs into a 20bb pot, leaving him a 13.5BB profit when he wins.

But he loses 6.5BBs when his set is no good. If you average that out, that leaves him with an 8.5BB profit for all the times he makes a set.

13.5*3 = 40.5
-6.5 = 34
/4 = 8.5. (I could be going about this wrong, so please let me know if I am.)

Anyway, if you compare that to the 7.5BBs he loses when he misses the flop, that still leaves him a 1BB profit.



[ QUOTE ]
I ran my TTH sim with 66 vs AA vs any2, assuming a 6 is on the flop. Even with a 6 on the flop, you will lose this pot 25% of the time. The AA will win 18.6% and the random hand will win 6.4% of the time.

So if you assume that the pots you lose are going to be the same size as the pots you win, you can pretty much cut your expected pot size in half and call that your net win when you flop a set.

If you really could be sure that your average pot was going to net the winner 20BB, it would be ok to call. I think that is very optimistic though. Even a maniac can fold. Sometimes the flop will be bad for the tight player and he will fold (whiffed with AK, JJ on a board of AK6, etc). I think that the absolute most you can average is going to be something like capped flop, 2 bets on the turn, 2 bets on the river. That gives you a net of (2.5+4+4+4) 14.5 Big Bets. Cut that in half for when you lose with a set, and you have about 7 to 1.

Even with this best case it's a loser. A few other possible problems. The maniac could 3-bet preflop-- You said he wasn't doing that, but I'm betting that if he looks down at AA-TT, AK, he'll 3-bet. Also, the BB could wake up with a hand and 3-bet. Either way, you're now trapped for 2 more small bets (asuming UTG caps).

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[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
Hamlet - nice post, and I agree the biggest problem with this play is the times you flop a set and still lose.

But I'm not sure about cutting net set profits in half when he loses 25%.

According to my rough math it looks like you should cut his net profits by 37%, not half.

I figured he put 6.5BBs into a 20bb pot, leaving him a 13.5BB profit when he wins.

But he loses 6.5BBs when his set is no good. If you average that out, that leaves him with an 8.5BB profit for all the times he makes a set.

13.5*3 = 40.5
-6.5 = 34
/4 = 8.5. (I could be going about this wrong, so please let me know if I am.)

Anyway, if you compare that to the 7.5BBs he loses when he misses the flop, that still leaves him a 1BB profit.



[ QUOTE ]
I ran my TTH sim with 66 vs AA vs any2, assuming a 6 is on the flop. Even with a 6 on the flop, you will lose this pot 25% of the time. The AA will win 18.6% and the random hand will win 6.4% of the time.

So if you assume that the pots you lose are going to be the same size as the pots you win, you can pretty much cut your expected pot size in half and call that your net win when you flop a set.

If you really could be sure that your average pot was going to net the winner 20BB, it would be ok to call. I think that is very optimistic though. Even a maniac can fold. Sometimes the flop will be bad for the tight player and he will fold (whiffed with AK, JJ on a board of AK6, etc). I think that the absolute most you can average is going to be something like capped flop, 2 bets on the turn, 2 bets on the river. That gives you a net of (2.5+4+4+4) 14.5 Big Bets. Cut that in half for when you lose with a set, and you have about 7 to 1.

Even with this best case it's a loser. A few other possible problems. The maniac could 3-bet preflop-- You said he wasn't doing that, but I'm betting that if he looks down at AA-TT, AK, he'll 3-bet. Also, the BB could wake up with a hand and 3-bet. Either way, you're now trapped for 2 more small bets (asuming UTG caps).

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take two things in consideration:

-hero will put in more than 33% of the money in the pot on average if he stays to the end since it is not sure that both opponents stay to the end.
-if hero is beat with a set or better, someone else must have an extremely strong hand. that means the average pot when he is beaten should be higher than when his hand is good.

[LinusKS]

[ QUOTE ]

2. if everybody tells you that you are wrong it is pretty obvious that you are.


[/ QUOTE ]

Nonsense.

If nobody can explain why, most likely it's because they can't.

And if they can't, there's no reason to assume they're right, no matter how many of them there are.