to push or not to push

[george w of poker]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($154.95)
Hero ($99.8)
SB ($167.66)
BB ($103.35)
UTG ($224.06)
MP ($30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5. MP posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP (poster) checks, CO calls $1, Hero calls $1, SB (poster) completes, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $2</font>, MP calls $2, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, SB calls $2.

Flop: ($15) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $4</font>, MP folds, CO folds, Hero calls $4, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $15</font>, BB calls $11, Hero calls $11.

Turn: ($60) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $15</font>, Hero ???

there is 85 in the pot and i have about 85 left. looks like sb is giving up or being extra tricky... probably the former. if i push, the only hand i'm afraid of a call from is adkd. anything else, i'm about a 2:1 dog and i'm freerolling qt. so i only need a fold from both a very small percentage of the time to make this a correct push. right?

[-Skeme-]

I have no idea, but I'm eager for answer.. so to the top.

[AllIn3High]

As far as I can see ( someone please correct me if I'm wrong, first time doing these calculations [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ).

Firstly, the pot after BB bets is $75, no?

Anyway:

EV of push:

No callers : $75

One caller (w/set) : (worst case) ($75+$85+$85) * 0.29545 - $85 = $245 * 0.29545 - $85 = $72 - $85 = -$13

Two caller (set and TPTK) : ($75+$85+$85+$85) * 0.28571 - $85 = $330 * 0.28571 - $85 = $94 - $85 = $9

So, as far as I'm able to calculate you either want both of them to fold or neither. Assuming one of them will ever call your all-in, you need this person to fold :

75 * X + (1-X) * -13 = 0 &lt;=&gt;
88X = 13 &lt;=&gt;
X = 0.14 = 14% of the time ?

EDIT:

Aside from all these calculations, with which I'm frankly I'm not too sure, It looks like SB gave up and BB has top pair and doesn't want to give a free card so I think a push here will take it down most of the time. If you did push : well played. If you did push and got called by a set and lost : still well played and better luck next time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[mythrilfox]

I don't like pushing here. BB seems to like his hand. And he seems bad enough to where he's going to the felt everytime. Plus, you closed action preflop after a raise. This is more indicative of a draw than a good hand.

[JaBlue]

Pushing may be +EV but calling seems much more so. The card is very cheap, especially if the third guy only calls. Also you have two people to pay you off when you suck out.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing may be +EV but calling seems much more so. The card is very cheap, especially if the third guy only calls. Also you have two people to pay you off when you suck out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur.