Final Table...what's your move?

[EverettKings]

This is one of those spots where I'm looking to win a huge pot. I call and try to sneak my money in if I get there, or I consider check/pushing the turn (if I miss) once he throws another bet out there and the pot's a bit bigger. Think about it, if you check/call the flop and check/push the turn, he will be very hard pressed to call you without a pretty big hand. And even if he has a pretty big hand you'll have like 11-14 outs.

If you push the flop I think every ace calls you. So the only hands you fold out are bluffs and maybe 98 or something. I just feel like this kills a lot of the value of your hand. If the immediate pot were bigger, I'd be all for it, but your stack relative to the pot is just too big for the check/push to be correct on the flop here.

Oh, and obviously you have to expect your flush outs to be good. Cases like this are so rare that it's not worth considering a better flush draw.

Everett

[stevepa]

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Shouldn't the post-flop minbet put us on guard? He's freely offering flush draws odds to call. The minbet would look to me like either a weak attempt to take the pot right there (and he probably didn't get the lead making weak steals) or a nut flush draw that wants company.


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If he's stealing, he'll fold. We're ahead of the nut flush draw. Why not push???

Steve

[TomHimself]

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I'm surprised so many responders are so sure we're ahead.

[/ QUOTE ] im surprised so many people dont understand we are even money against so many hands and better against alot too

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Unfortunately villain calls with K 7 suited (same suit as my hand). Our flush hits on the turn and I'm knocked out. When I looked up the odds after the hand...I had about a 50% chance to win.




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How do you figure you had a 50% chance to win. Without knowing what his cards are your outs should be 11 (9 to the flush and 2 to the set). If you knew what his cards were, which you can't, you were ahead at the time.

I still say a re-raise would have been the best play but actually his call of you all-in was not smart on his part as your re-raise indicates you have something, most likely aces he has 9 outs to the flush with a couple partial runner runner outs for 2 pairs or sets for a total of maybe 12 making him a 2 to 1 dog to win. If you call all-ins as a 2 to 1 dog you don't win that often.

[locutus2002]

Interesting line.

I don't think you're folding out an ace at the turn if a blank comes, and you're bottom pair is very fragile. If the diamond comes you are unlikely to get paid off, and if a blank comes you are likely to get your chips in when you are behind. He is most likely calling more hands after the turn rather than less.

What hand does the chip leader in the tourney limp with from the CO? He's raising any pair here especially aces since everybody behind him is expecting him to steal so he has no reason to limp. He's not going to limp 88 or 66 here since he's so easily beat by an over and doesn't want to give a free look at the flop.

He could be limping with two suited cards here so you may be up against a bigger flush or maybe even a smaller flush. He could have something like J 8 and will fold to your check raise, even if he doesn't we're still ahead.

If he has something A 6 we are in some trouble since we lost our 2 outs for the trips and our 3 outs to two pair.

Push here since we are ahead too often and the hands the chip leader min bets here is large since he knows nobody wants to tangle with him without hitting the flop big.

[betgo]

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How do you figure you had a 50% chance to win. Without knowing what his cards are your outs should be 11 (9 to the flush and 2 to the set). If you knew what his cards were, which you can't, you were ahead at the time.

I still say a re-raise would have been the best play but actually his call of you all-in was not smart on his part as your re-raise indicates you have something, most likely aces he has 9 outs to the flush with a couple partial runner runner outs for 2 pairs or sets for a total of maybe 12 making him a 2 to 1 dog to win. If you call all-ins as a 2 to 1 dog you don't win that often.

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Try www.twodimes.net. Td6d is 51% against Kd7d on the flop.

I don't know where you get Kd7d being a 2-1 dog to top pair on the flop. Same source has it as a 61-39 dog.

A flush draw has other outs besides a flush. Combined with a pair, it is generally slightly ahead of top pair.

However, villain's call if the push with the nut flush draw is bad. He is not quite getting the pot odds against top pair, and he could be up against what you had, 2-pair, or a set. There is some possibily hero has a lower flush draw without a pair, but that is less likely. It is unlikely hero is purely bluffing.

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How do you figure you had a 50% chance to win. Without knowing what his cards are your outs should be 11 (9 to the flush and 2 to the set). If you knew what his cards were, which you can't, you were ahead at the time.

I still say a re-raise would have been the best play but actually his call of you all-in was not smart on his part as your re-raise indicates you have something, most likely aces he has 9 outs to the flush with a couple partial runner runner outs for 2 pairs or sets for a total of maybe 12 making him a 2 to 1 dog to win. If you call all-ins as a 2 to 1 dog you don't win that often.

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Try www.twodimes.net. Td6d is 51% against Kd7d on the flop.

I don't know where you get Kd7d being a 2-1 dog to top pair on the flop. Same source has it as a 61-39 dog.

A flush draw has other outs besides a flush. Combined with a pair, it is generally slightly ahead of top pair.

However, villain's call if the push with the nut flush draw is bad. He is not quite getting the pot odds against top pair, and he could be up against what you had, 2-pair, or a set. There is some possibily hero has a lower flush draw without a pair, but that is less likely. It is unlikely hero is purely bluffing.

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When you say you are even money on this you are acting as if you know he has K7s, which you can't possiably know. His bet indicates he has at least top pair and his push to you re-raise should indicate he has more. The fact that he pushed to on a draw after being re-raised is not something you would expext out of most good players. You have to evalute your outs based on what you think he has not what you find out after the hand is over.

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When you say you are even money on this you are acting as if you know he has K7s, which you can't possiably know. His bet indicates he has at least top pair and his push to you re-raise should indicate he has more. The fact that he pushed to on a draw after being re-raised is not something you would expext out of most good players. You have to evalute your outs based on what you think he has not what you find out after the hand is over.

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Td6d is a favorite against a pair of aces if its kicker isn't a diamond larger than a ten. Also I think the chip leader raises preflop with an ace here. If I had to put him on a hand I would think he has second pair and is throwing out a feeler to see if it's good and knowing eveyone might fold to a bet from the big stack.

[flyingmoose]

I push this all day, sorry about the result.