Free Will Philosophy Problem

[edthayer]

My philosophy teacher posed this problem to the class. I've been thinking about it a lot, and I'm fairly convinced I have the correct answer. I want to hear what you guys think about it.

Box #1 is guaranteed to contain $1000 no matter what. Box #2 either contains one million dollars, or it contains nothing. You can either 1) take both boxes, or 2) take only Box #2.

Seems simple enough right now, but there's a story behind Box #2. A brilliant alien psychologist has been studying your every behavior since birth. This hypothetical alien knows you better than you know yourself, and can predict your actions as accurately as possible. This alien is in charge of deciding whether to put the million in Box #2 or not. If the alien predicts you will chose both boxes, he will put nothing in Box #2. If the alien predicts that you chose ONLY Box #2, he will put a million dollars in it.

Like I said, I've pretty much convinced myself of the answer. I'd be interested to hear various arguments on both sides though, because I might end up having to defend myself later in class.

[Pocket Trips]

[ QUOTE ]
My philosophy teacher posed this problem to the class. I've been thinking about it a lot, and I'm fairly convinced I have the correct answer. I want to hear what you guys think about it.

Box #1 is guaranteed to contain $1000 no matter what. Box #2 either contains one million dollars, or it contains nothing. You can either 1) take both boxes, or 2) take only Box #2.

Seems simple enough right now, but there's a story behind Box #2. A brilliant alien psychologist has been studying your every behavior since birth. This hypothetical alien knows you better than you know yourself, and can predict your actions as accurately as possible. This alien is in charge of deciding whether to put the million in Box #2 or not. If the alien predicts you will chose both boxes, he will put nothing in Box #2. If the alien predicts that you chose ONLY Box #2, he will put a million dollars in it.

Like I said, I've pretty much convinced myself of the answer. I'd be interested to hear various arguments on both sides though, because I might end up having to defend myself later in class.

[/ QUOTE ]

My brain hurts

[gasgod]

Since the amount in each box cannot change, take both.

If the second box is empty, there was nothing you could do about it. At least you will have $1000 if you take both. Deposit it all in Party Poker, and send me half of it for giving you this advice.

GG

[Demana]

They will never be able to predict your actions 100% of the time, so it really doesn't matter.

You could out think yourself and go against your expected behavior, only to have the alien make a mistake in guessing your expected behavior and you will be screwed either way.

In the end, you're better off taking both boxes because you will always get something, regardless of any mistakes made.

[edthayer]

You both came to the same conclusion as I did. The way I see it, it's always correct to take both boxes. Unfortunately for me, if this situation ever came up, the alien would never put the million dollars in Box #2, because he'd know that I know that taking both boxes is the smartest thing to do. He'd know that I would realize NOT taking the first box is just giving up $1000 no how you choose to look at it.

The only way I could ever expect to gain anything from Box #2 is if I somehow tricked myself into actually believing that taking ONLY Box #2 is logical and correct. And even after that, taking both boxes would STILL be correct, seeing as the million is either in there or it isn't when it comes time to chose.

[smoore]

So basically the alien will give a stupid person a chance at $1mil but anyone with a brain only gets $1k. Liberal arts professors sure are goofy.

[raisins]

This is Newcomb's Paradox. It has recieved a lot of attention in philosophy circles in the last 50 years. It boils down to belief in free will vs. determinism. There is a lot written on this paradox on the web and probably some on this forum. Martin Gardner has wlso written on it in one of his books and Paul Watzlawick gives a treatment of it in _How Reak is Real_. There is no "solution". Your response to the dilemna is entailed by your belief in free will or in determinism.

regards,

raisins

["spaceman"Bryce]

Does the Alien let you off the spaceship?

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
You both came to the same conclusion as I did. The way I see it, it's always correct to take both boxes. Unfortunately for me, if this situation ever came up, the alien would never put the million dollars in Box #2, because he'd know that I know that taking both boxes is the smartest thing to do. He'd know that I would realize NOT taking the first box is just giving up $1000 no how you choose to look at it.

The only way I could ever expect to gain anything from Box #2 is if I somehow tricked myself into actually believing that taking ONLY Box #2 is logical and correct. And even after that, taking both boxes would STILL be correct, seeing as the million is either in there or it isn't when it comes time to chose.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you. The alien made his prediction before you were presented with the choice. Nothing you can do ex post facto in your choice (or your thinking about the choice) can now change his prediction and thus his decision to put or not put the $1MM in box# 2 (you were who you were pre-decision). You must take both boxes and you will never get the $1MM. But there is nothing you can do about it.

FWIW, I believe in free choice and don't find this hyp too disturbing. I would be interested in hearing more about it though.

Thanks for the post.

[Demana]

[ QUOTE ]

and can predict your actions as accurately as possible

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this part of the question is the most interesting. Can someone's actions be predicted 100% of the time and if so, couldn't counter measures be put in place to make them lose no matter what they choose?