Waiting for the turn with AK

mrwatson23 · #1 06-28-2005, 09:05 PM

In this hand I decided to wait until the turn, hoping to raise if a safe card came off. Mistake? What about the fold on the river?

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $15.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (10.66 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (7.33 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (11.33 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, MP2 calls, BB raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero folds, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 17.33 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has Ts Ks (flush, ace high).
UTG+1 has 5d Kd (two pair, kings and fives).
Outcome: BB wins 17.33 BB.

Dazarath · #2 06-28-2005, 09:42 PM

Raise the flop, you want to charge draws. You have TPTK, not the nut straight with a high flush draw or something. The board is very connected and has 2 clubs.

tighterr · #3 06-28-2005, 10:27 PM

Ya I think it was just a bit of bad luck which got you this time. I like the line, no one is folding their flush draw on the flop for an extra bet. Just unfortunate with the perfect perfect to hit.

DcifrThs · #4 06-29-2005, 12:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ya I think it was just a bit of bad luck which got you this time. I like the line, no one is folding their flush draw on the flop for an extra bet. Just unfortunate with the perfect perfect to hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

i vastly disagree.

on that flop you're hand is extremely vulnerable and you should raise every time...i can't envision a likely scenario in which calling the flop bet is correct on a KcJc9s board...just seems ludacris to me and nowhere near the highest ev line. people w/ draws will put many many bets in on the flop and those same people will check call the turn.

-Barron

daryn · #5 06-29-2005, 01:13 AM

the flop play is horrible. people behind you can call profitably with all kinds of hands, gutshots for instance. there are too many people in the hand to be getting cute and just calling.

elindauer · #6 06-29-2005, 03:17 AM

I think this is an excellent time to wait. You will have a hard time getting anything to fold on the flop, and they won't be making much of a mistake. A turn raise may well limit the field, and if it doesn't, they're making a much bigger mistake calling you. Obviously if the turn is bad, you'll be glad you waited.

Good luck.
Eric

elindauer · #7 06-29-2005, 03:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
the flop play is horrible. people behind you can call profitably with all kinds of hands, gutshots for instance. there are too many people in the hand to be getting cute and just calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does someone see this flop with a hand that flops a gutshot and NOT have a hand worth calling 2 with? Do you suppose everyone has Q2?

The hands you are up against are hands like JT, KQ, QJ, etc... pair + gutshot. These hands will call 2 cold on the flop and be right to do so. It's better to wait.

Good luck.
Eric

elindauer · #8 06-29-2005, 03:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
on that flop you're hand is extremely vulnerable and you should raise every time...i can't envision a likely scenario in which calling the flop bet is correct on a KcJc9s board...just seems ludacris to me and nowhere near the highest ev line. people w/ draws will put many many bets in on the flop and those same people will check call the turn.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Your hand being vulnerable is not in itself a reason to raise. Your hand must be vulnerable AND you must be able to fold the hands that make it vulnerable. In this case, those are pair+gutshot type hands, which you can make fold on the turn, not on the flop.

my 2 cents.
Eric

vulture · #9 06-29-2005, 03:49 AM

<blockquote>Als antwoord op:<hr />
Your hand being vulnerable is not in itself a reason to raise. Your hand must be vulnerable AND you must be able to fold the hands that make it vulnerable. In this case, those are pair+gutshot type hands, which you can make fold on the turn, not on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's absolutely not true. Your reason you have to raise the flop is that you don't give your opponents the proper potodds to call and they'll make a mistake according to the TOP if they call.
If you call the flop you give your opponents the proper odds to call a gutshot on the flop; if you raise you don't (there are 5,5 BB in the pot when it's up to you). IMO it's just this simple and nothing more or less.
The reason why you wait for the turn to raise in some occasions is that your opponents independently of what you do (raise or call) on the flop, have proper odds to call the flop, but won't get the proper potodds on your turn raise. This is absolutely not the case in this example.

Regards,

Vulture

elindauer · #10 06-29-2005, 03:59 AM

Is your argument that your opponents do not have odds to call with a pair+gutshot like JT, or that everybody called 2 cold preflop with T4?

Most players, even bad players, do not call two cold with Q6. It's unlikely that we are going to be up against a hand that has only a gutshot going for it. Pair+gutshot hands though, are highly plausible. You should play this hand assuming the CO has JT.

Good luck.
Eric