Misplayed every street? what do you do? tough spot with KQ - Page 4

phish · #31 10-12-2005, 11:05 AM

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(Anyways, Preflop you should call. You have a mediocre hand for the situation considering your position and the number of players in the pot.) It's pretty +EV to raise, not debateable.

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well ive stated reasons for combleting the sb...so if its so clear EV to raise this from the sb lets hear why.

Barron

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I'll offer a guess on the thinking why it's positive EV to raise, and articulate why I think it's wrong.

It's positive EV to raise because KQ is almost certainly better than the average hand out there, so I should put more money in the pot. Plus the fact that one or two players may fold is an added plus.

My problem with that reasoning:
1. Even if one player folds (unlikely both will fold), you're still in a multi-way situation.
2. KQ off does not play well multi-way. So questionable whether it's really positive ev to raise.
3. Most importantly, this raise affects how the hand will be played post-flop: the most reasonable good flop for your hand is top pair. Now one pair with good kicker is very vulnerable multi-way. If you hit this flop, you'd prefer that your opponents fold. By making the pot big, you make this less likely.

Plus, one of the biggest advantages that a winning player has is the ability to outplay their opponents post-flop. And that means getting off a good but losing hand. By building the pot, you make it harder to do this also. Hence, any gain in pre-flop equity (if any) is, in my opinion, more than offset by loss in post-flop flexibility.

We've all heard complaints about wild games where it's usually capped pre-flop and people are now chasing with everything to the end (and in most cases properly so). Those are not the best games for the expert player to be in. Raising here with this hand has some of the effect of that.

Now if you were in a heads-up situation, (SB limps in and you're the BB) then I agree the pre-flop raise is positive EV. Multi-way, you're better off calling and seeing a cheap flop.

(As an aside, there is an article in last month's magazine by baronvontoth whereby he raises pre-flop, thinking he has a better than avg hand, which traps him for many bets post-flop and he hits his gutshot to win the hand. The conclusion he drew was that his pre-flop raise made it possible for him to win this big pot, whereas I think the proper conclusion would have been 'beware of building a pot cause it can trap you,' making you play like the fish that you're supposed to be feeding off.)

After all, if you're building the pot pre-flop so that you and the fish play the same post-flop, where's your edge coming from? Playing better starting hands? That just isn't enough of an edge to make it worth playing.

veganmav · #32 10-12-2005, 02:47 PM

Here is the entire hand. Not much for "results" but it looks like UTG did have a flush draw.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $10.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO folds, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 folds, Button raises, Hero calls, UTG 3-bets, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Button raises, Hero folds, UTG calls.

River: (13.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Button bets, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

#33 10-12-2005, 03:04 PM

agreed, he is investing quite a bit of money on two overs without a flush draw to back it up.

also what makes him think that if a K or a Q hits that it will be the nuts and take down the pot? if a K or a Q comes on the turn here you're going to pay off someone with a possible AK, AQ, and if a club hits on the river you have even more to ponder and will end up paying it off due to the relative size of the pot.

im looking to see this flop cheaply with KQ, especially with the extra value added by the poster. if you get a nice flop then you can make those guys with the flush draws pay to hit it, right now you're just bleeding bets away.

BarronVangorToth · #34 10-12-2005, 03:24 PM

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(As an aside, there is an article in last month's magazine by baronvontoth whereby he raises pre-flop, thinking he has a better than avg hand, which traps him for many bets post-flop and he hits his gutshot to win the hand.

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I'm not interested in hijacking this interesting thread with further debate about last month's article, but since I was mentioned, I wouldn't raise in this spot pre-flop.

There is a world of difference between KQs and KQo, especially when the former is in last position and the latter is up front.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

ihardlyknowher · #35 10-12-2005, 04:41 PM

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Just sat at 1 hand ago.
Poker ace HUD tells me UTG is 39/0.7/6 poster is unkown, and button is 44/1.2/9

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $10.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO folds, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 folds, Button raises, Hero calls, UTG 3-bets, Button calls, Hero calls.

Seriously, I'm lost.

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I would not raise PF and check-call the flop.

#36 10-12-2005, 05:34 PM

I love the PF raise cuz u got two really bad limpers plus a poster. If nothing else, it's purely for value as u have a fair amount of equity vs their limping ranges here. Being OOP sucks, but I don't like giving these fish a free/cheap look. I would also C/C when u miss on the flop tho.

Piers · #37 10-12-2005, 05:47 PM

I disagree, he was up a 44/6 a 39/9 and a 100/? pre flop. KQ has got to be a lot better than the rage of hands he is up against. The point about not building pots with reverse implied odds can apply with KQo but not when you opponent’s ranges are as week as this. Against 12/3 and 17/2 and even I might check.

I think I would go passive on the flop. It’s a one card non nut flush draw, and you’re against three opponents. Against two opponents or if the Kc was the Ac I would be happier with the bet.

ihardlyknowher · #38 10-12-2005, 06:00 PM

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I love the PF raise cuz u got two really bad limpers plus a poster. If nothing else, it's purely for value as u have a fair amount of equity vs their limping ranges here. Being OOP sucks, but I don't like giving these fish a free/cheap look. I would also C/C when u miss on the flop tho.

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IMO, you are underestimating the reverse implied odds of this hand and the cost of being in the worst possible position for all subsequent betting rounds.