Super Monday Hand - Final 20 w/AK facing 2 all-ins

[dmk]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually think it's a closer decision than people might think. What range of hands would you put the EP and CO on? Keep in mind that my read is very subjective and doesn't absolutely dismiss the possibility of a big hand for either.

[/ QUOTE ]

you need 26.5% equity to break even

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
UTG: 35.6176 % 31.27% 04.34% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Button: 35.8667 % 31.00% 04.87% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hero: 28.5157 % 21.38% 07.14% { AKo }

if we remove only AA from CO's range above based on your read, we get...

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
UTG: 36.7924 % 32.21% 04.58% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Button: 33.3064 % 28.18% 05.13% { KK-TT, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hero: 29.9012 % 22.38% 07.53% { AKo }

are these fair ranges for both players?

[SossMan]

It's not close. I don't care what the reads are, you have 5x and AK.

edited for my bad math skills (apparently 20/4 = 5x)

[Rduke55]

I think that this is a clear call.
20% of your stack is already in. There's a ton of money in the center already. You have AK. And you're already in the money with no increase for a long while.
I'd guess that EP doesn't have AA or even KK. Button's range is enormous. I'd even guess one of your aces is in their hand but I'm still calling this.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I actually think it's a closer decision than people might think. What range of hands would you put the EP and CO on? Keep in mind that my read is very subjective and doesn't absolutely dismiss the possibility of a big hand for either.

[/ QUOTE ]

you need 26.5% equity to break even

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
UTG: 35.6176 % 31.27% 04.34% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Button: 35.8667 % 31.00% 04.87% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hero: 28.5157 % 21.38% 07.14% { AKo }

if we remove only AA from CO's range above based on your read, we get...

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
UTG: 36.7924 % 32.21% 04.58% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Button: 33.3064 % 28.18% 05.13% { KK-TT, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hero: 29.9012 % 22.38% 07.53% { AKo }

are these fair ranges for both players?

[/ QUOTE ]

if it's even close to +chipEV (and sometimes even -chipEV) you have to call. You are down to 5x. A slightly negchipEV play here may be the best you can get, esp on a table where the big stacks are playing properly and taking away first in vig.

[schwza]

this hand would be more interesting if hero had AJ or everyone had 2x as many chips.

[Havok]

I think you have to look at it as trying to get the highest finish and best payout. If you were one of the chip leaders, no need to gamble here. But, given your postiton, and fact that first guy all in probably has any ace is suspicious. 2nd guy to act could have any small pair or ace jack or queen. I think its a good gamble to take to tripple up. At best your way ahead of the big stack and dominating or a coinflip to the other short stack. Easy call.

[Lloyd]

Just to be clear, I didn't think it was close either when I was playing the hand. But this is a case where the math behind the decision makes it a closer decision than I thought it was. And it could also be a case where taking the worst of it makes sense.

[2005]

[ QUOTE ]
this hand would be more interesting if hero had AJ or everyone had 2x as many chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad I looked at all the posts b/c this was exactly what I was about to reply with. This is not close. Very easy call whether you're off by 2% EV wise or not.

You are shortstacking with 23K and 2K/4K blinds. This is a great chance to triple up that will likely not come again before the blinds eat u.

[Lloyd]

Okay, thanks for all the replies. I've been getting knocked out quite frequently lately with A highs (although not all AKs) and want to make sure that my instinct (calling, at least this one) is correct. When I did the math on this at the time I realized it was a pretty close EV decision but given that trippling up would allow me to play a very different (and more profitable) game it was an easy decision to call.