ZeeJustin: A Case Study

[LearnedfromTV]

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And anyways, for the player with a $200k BR, yeah, playing the smaller sats might be a good idea if he's got good EV in them, but assuming he's not going to sell his seat, his variance WILL NOT decrease by playing $250 sats over $250 MTTs. He's not MAKING $2500 each time he wins. I'm not too up on expectations on these things, but i'll assume he's at least a pretty good winner and qualifies 1/6. So on average, he'll spend $1500 to get into the $2500 event. So you could say he ahs a pretty good EV in the sats, but the thing is, its still no different than him buying into the big tourney for a discounted $1500. Now, how is it that a $1500 MTT can have less variance than a $250 MTT.



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This is the only part you are getting wrong. Winning a seat is the no different from winning cash to him because he is going to buy in anyway. Winning a $2500 seat by investing $1500 in satellites is exactly equivalent to winning $2500 cash by playing $1500 worth of lower buyin multis (assuming these are his expectation in each).