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Keeping the Bubble Alive to gain $EV
I’ve been analyzing this post by Scuba Chuck. In the very last paragraph he writes this:
[ QUOTE ] But back to the bigstack (‘cos we’re discussing proper bubble play). As you can see, in theory, bigstack doesn’t want to win this hand against shorty, as he transfers 21.6% of $EV to the other two stacks. (You can see that shorty has 24.4% of equity if he wins, but if big stack wins, he only gains 2.8% of equity) So in theory, again, bigstack really does not want to have a good hand here. [/ QUOTE ] On to the hand: Preflop, the $EV of each stack is: Seat 2: axbear ( $770 ) 20.9% Seat 3: Hero ( $6420 ) 42.2% Seat 9: galziegrl ( $2660 ) 32.6% Seat 10: rrichone ( $150 ) 4.3% Assume that shorty has top 50% of hands, perhaps 30% and 2d stack has any 2. If I fold, and shorty wins against 2d stack, shorty has 450 chips. Then assume I raise on the next hand, with a worse hand, and try and funnel chips to shorty, keeping the bubble alive to increase my $EV. Also, if I fold and 2d stack wins the transfer of $EV is fairly irrelevant. Thoughts? ***** Hand History for Game 2322140396 ***** NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:13712624 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) Table Table 12197 (Real Money) Seat 2 is the button Total number of players : 4 Seat 2: axbear ( $770 ) Seat 3: Hero ( $6420 ) Seat 9: galziegrl ( $2660 ) Seat 10: rrichone ( $150 ) Trny:13712624 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Hero [ 6c 6d ] |
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