Rate my spew from 1-10

I only have limited stats on the Villain. Only 58 hands and he's at 63.7/0/1.00....so prelim indications are a complete fish. My instincts are screaming at me that I am way behind on the flop, but I just can't lay these Kings down. I'm just curious to know how much of a spew (if any) you guys think it was to call this down.


PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.20 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.20 BB

About a 9. I probably check down too and die a little bit inside when the a2o kills my kings.

Well, first ignoring the read on this player. What is he logically trying to represent here? There's two "hit-the-flop" possibilities: He has an A or a J. With a flop raise, it looks more like an A.

Now to the read on the player from his stats. The only time I'd want to call down in this hand is when I'm up against a loose aggressive post-flo player. Then it could be more likely you are in a WA/WB situation. If he's something like 60/20/3 then calling down would be acceptible and even then you still have to think about it.

Here? No. The player isn't completely passive, but from the looks of it...he is probably a transparent player: he bets when he has a good hand and calls or folds bad hands (perhaps calling down mediocre holdings like middle pair, etc.). Do you think this player is capable of raising the flop with say TT or less? Or even a J?

If you think he's BSing on the flop, you can call, but you definitely have to lay it down on the turn. I'd consider folding on the flop, too, as he looks to have the A.

edit: forgot to rate the spew. I'd say an 8.66 repeating. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Redd]

I'd give it a 5 since 2 of the 4 streets are spewing. You need to plan to call down from the flop until the J hits, since even if his numbers are accurate after 60 hands, this is equally likely a jack/lower pocket as an ace IMO. After the second jack hits and he still leads, the odds that he's semibluffing a strong draw/leading a (counterfeitted) lower pair are too great to continue IMO.

FWIW, I'd probably call the flop raise and then muck the turn because of your reasoning (along with a much lesser extent to "loose call" as to not be raise bluffed later.)

Also, I forgot that the sample size was pretty small.

Thanks for the comments y'all. I think you are both dead on and your exact posts were going thru my head while this hand was unfolding. I was tilting somewhat here to be honest because my cards were unbelievably cold for like 3 hours straight and I was just determined to take a hand and decided this was it.

I put this up cuz I've been on the forums for a couple of weeks now and felt it was time for a little public humiliation and also just on the off chance that maybe someone did think the turn and river bets weren't so atrocious after all, but it looks like they definitely were. Thanks again.