Who plays this one/quick preflop?

[Nick Royale]

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I am not so sure about this. If the hand is played 4 handed for 3SB each, you need to make at least 22SB to play for set value alone. Given that there will already be 10.5SB put in by your opponents preflop, you only need to make up about 6BB post flop if you hit your set. Given the nature of the game, I can easily see this happening.

Even if, as is quite possible, the betting is capped preflop, I still think you can consider playing if you think it will be 4 handed or better. You would then need to make up about 8BB post flop when you hit. This pot is likely to end up a monster.

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I'm not sure how you came to this, but I would do it like this:

<u>4 players to the flop for 3 SB each:</u>
3:10 (pot odds)
1:10 (odds you'll win the pot)
3:30 (odds you'll win the pot times the number of bets you have to put in)

30 - 10 = 20 SB

You'll have to make 10BB postflop according to this scenario. A scenario of 5 players to the flop for 4 bets each would result in 11BB and 5 players for 3 bets each 8.5BB. I think you'll need to expect to win an average of ~10BB to be able to make this call preeflop, and I don't think we can expect that. It seems to me that most of the time we'll have to fold this flop when we miss and the only thing this LAG does to make it closer a call is the fact that he makes the implied odds when hitting better. Still I don't think he makes this preflop call close.

[Nick Royale]

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With 4 I think its +EV.

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With Hero's description of villains that's probably true.

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I have hard to imagine we'll get this pot 5-ways more than 50% of the time (a read on BB would be nice) and along with the risk of getting capped I think it makes this a fold.

I'm out. Yeah, it's great if you hit the set on the flop, but do you really want to pay 3-4 bets just to see the flop. There's no guarantee you win with a set either, and if its four or five handed and you do make your set, you might need to fill up to win. With the players in the hand you will blow your brains out trying to make the fill...

If you're last to act, you knew you could safely close at 3 bets, AND you wanted to gamble, then maybe, but not here and not in this context...

[krimson]

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<u>4 players to the flop for 3 SB each:</u>
3:10 (pot odds)
1:10 (odds you'll win the pot)
3:30 (odds you'll win the pot times the number of bets you have to put in)

30 - 10 = 20 SB

You'll have to make 10BB postflop according to this scenario.

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This is actually being pretty generous. UTG is a complete maniac and I think the chances of him making this 4 bets pre-flop is very high.

[Nick Royale]

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<u>4 players to the flop for 3 SB each:</u>
3:10 (pot odds)
1:10 (odds you'll win the pot)
3:30 (odds you'll win the pot times the number of bets you have to put in)

30 - 10 = 20 SB

You'll have to make 10BB postflop according to this scenario.

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This is actually being pretty generous. UTG is a complete maniac and I think the chances of him making this 4 bets pre-flop is very high.

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I agree, but with the read given on Button and a possible call from BB I think 10-11BB is reasonable. Still I think that's more than we'll manage to make on average.