Difficult Turn Decision

Leptyne · #10 12-29-2005, 02:18 PM

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Party Poker (9 handed) $600 NL converter

Stacks: Hero $2935.00
BTN $795.40

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
7 folds.

MP1 calls $6, Hero raises $30 (there is an late position poster in the CO), 2 folds, button calls $30, MP1 folds

Pot: $75

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players).

Hero bets $37, Button raises to $74, Hero raises to $137...Button calls $136

(Should I have bet more on the flop here or is this OK???)

Pot: $421

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

What's the best line here? 

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Definitely a tough spot, OOP with middle set v. a flopped str8 with a flush draw. Typical WA/WB situation. However, this villain is a Rock. You don't say anything about your stats, which have a huge bearing on what a Rock will require to call a raise. It's hard to see a Rock calling a raise with 78s. first to act I'm firing an overbet of $100 which is intended to inform that if you're on a draw you better plan on hitting it on the turn (4-1) cause I've got the Big Stack and I'm going to push a blank turn.

If I get smoothcalled then I put him all-in on a blank turn and check if a club hits. When he bets I figure I'm WB and a 4-1 dog, so I've either got odds or I don't.

If I get raised on the flop then we're getting all the money in now. Depending on his raise amount I may push or put him where he's got to fold or push. Here I'm thinking it feels more like set over set.

Your flop lead smells weak and invites a raise, but the min-raise smells weak to me. At this point a pot-sized raise would be $225 to make it $300 to play. This gives villain 2-1 on his money to make his draw on the turn which is 4-1, and it will be an additional 2-1 as a 4-1 dog to see the river. The point of this is to encourage villain to put his money in getting incorrect odds.

If villain has a set and wants to push the flop then its fine with me.