2nd nuts how far do you go? - Page 3

MNpoker · #21 11-02-2005, 04:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]

BB is almost as likely to have JsXs as AsXs, he was is the BB after all. This is where I think your 60% number falls apart.

[/ QUOTE ]

With any cards that give him a smaller flush his raise of the SB on the flop was a bad move. And his 3 bet on the turn was HORRIBLE. IMO.

If you disagree with my analysis then feel free to raise the turn. It's just an opinion.

Give me your breakdown of the hand and WHY you should cap the turn. (Including the thoughts from the other players perspectives and why the hands you put them on make sense)That might be more beneficial.

vmacosta · #22 11-02-2005, 04:37 PM

"i would cap this turn absolutely never in this situation, it's not even close, and i can't begin to understand why anybody is considering it.

since you're asking the question it probably means he had a worse hand, though. "

Hmmm... After reading the OP, I was pretty sure that the results were the opposite (he capped and lost).

With MP1 in there just calling, I don't see how you don't cap. Say MP has on average 6 outs here. Then his chance of winning pot is about 13%. So we only have to have the best hand 37% of the time for capping to be correct. My limited experience playing online tells me that we're at least 37% favorite to have the best hand right now.

kidcolin · #23 11-02-2005, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With MP1 in there just calling, I don't see how you don't cap. Say MP has on average 6 outs here. Then his chance of winning pot is about 13%. So we only have to have the best hand 37% of the time for capping to be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused. Why is the magic cap # 37%? Why aren't you considering BB?

vmacosta · #24 11-02-2005, 07:11 PM

Actually, the exact number is 36.4%. This is assuming that when we are ahead our opponents have a combined 6 outs to draw out, and neglecting river action (if we play the river well it should roughly balance out). Let
x = probability of us having the best hand. Then
EV = 2*x*41/47 - (1 - x)
solving for EV=0, gives 36.4%.
Hope this helps

veganmav · #25 11-03-2005, 10:52 AM

BB is your standard multitabling TAG 16/11/2.3
MP1 is part of the reason I'm in this game, 46/12/0.5
As you can see I posted, so this is my very first hand at the table.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $15.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, Hero (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB raises, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB raises, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, Hero 3-bets, SB calls, BB caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (13 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, SB folds, BB 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

So I ended up calling the turn. On the river the 5 of spades rolls off. BB Bets MP1 calls..I call

BB shows 97spades, MP1 shows 6s3s. They both had lower flushes, MHIG.