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#71
09-28-2005, 11:31 PM
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
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SB is a middle aged guy, (35ish)..... [/ QUOTE ] I stopped reading at this point...LMFAO [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 
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#72
09-28-2005, 11:51 PM
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
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I put this scumbag on Ace Jack not suited. [/ QUOTE ] For some reason, I just can't stop laughing at this. Awesome second post. As for the hand, I think you can analyze it all day, but in the end, you took a gamble. There are too many things going on here to say with any certainty where you stand. A lot of the normal calculations just don't apply, due to the accidental raise. The main thing going for you is that you were the first one to get all your chips into a strange pot, and you have a fairly tight image. Hopefully that's enough to take it down, while everyone sits and scratches their heads. Hope it worked out.
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#74
09-29-2005, 12:57 AM
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
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You forgot to figure in the liklihood that a better situation will arise in which to risk all of your chips when you determined calling was better than folding. Vince [/ QUOTE ] I don't think this is the right way of looking at it. If ZJ believes he has a decent sized overlay when compared to the price he is being offered/giving then it's a good spot to try and accumulate some chips. i.e. this might be a pretty darn good spot if his read is correct and not one worth passing up.
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#75
09-29-2005, 01:00 AM
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
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I predict he called w/ 88 and you hit a 9. [/ QUOTE ] I like your read better....it's less dramatic. I was talking about this thread with a friend on AIM today and I guessed that he got called by 77 and made a flush [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#78
09-29-2005, 01:19 AM
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You forgot to figure in the liklihood that a better situation will arise in which to risk all of your chips when you determined calling was better than folding. [/ QUOTE ] He didn't forget to do that, he knew doing that would be a waste of time. You don't pass up an EV of 1500 chips, unless you hate money. Matt [/ QUOTE ] I assume you mean 1500 chips at this stage in the tournament right? If your stack is 10k, then 1500 chips EV is equivalent to going all-in heads up as a 57.5% favorite. If you were playing in a 512 person coin flipping tournament, then being a 57.5% favorite to win each coin flip would make you roughly 3.5 times more likely to win the tournament then the average person who is 50/50 on each coin flip. (You'd win about 1/145 times, they'd win 1/512.) I imagine that applying this to a poker tournament is a tad more complex, but is that the basic idea why you don't want to pass up 1,500 chips at this stage in the tourney?
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#79
09-29-2005, 01:43 AM
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
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I assume you mean 1500 chips at this stage in the tournament right? [/ QUOTE ] Sure, although I'm not too big on passing up edges at any stage. [ QUOTE ] If your stack is 10k, then 1500 chips EV is equivalent to going all-in heads up as a 57.5% favorite. [/ QUOTE ] Yes and no. Those two situations are equivalent in EV, but in ZeeJustin's hand, a good chunk of that EV comes when he doesn't have turn his hand over. So this situation is actually less risky than the all-in with an edge. [ QUOTE ] If you were playing in a 512 person coin flipping tournament, then being a 57.5% favorite to win each coin flip would make you roughly 3.5 times more likely to win the tournament then the average person who is 50/50 on each coin flip. (You'd win about 1/145 times, they'd win 1/512.) I imagine that applying this to a poker tournament is a tad more complex, but is that the basic idea why you don't want to pass up 1,500 chips at this stage in the tourney? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, that's the basic idea. Also, if you pass on this hypothetical 57.5% coin flip, it will take some time before you find your "better" situation to get your money in. If instead you had called for all your chips and won, you would've been able to use your skill with the new stack. So if you want to wait for a "better" spot to double up, it has to be significantly better, because if you double up here, you'll have more chips later. Best, Matt
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#80
09-29-2005, 01:56 AM
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
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So if you want to wait for a "better" spot to double up, it has to be significantly better, because if you double up here, you'll have more chips later. [/ QUOTE ] i don't understand why this is such a hard concept for people to grasp. taking a double up now doesn't disallow me to take (bigger?) advantage of the everpresent 'double up in the future with a greater edge'. It reduces that chance somewhat (if i lose i'm out) but you can't simply factor the all of the risk and none of the reward. such a simple, yet misunderstood concept that so many people don't get. nice post.
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