A 10/20 Hand

[theriverwild]

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
[color=#666666]4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises</font>, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets</font>, BB calls, MP2 folds.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
BB checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.75 BB

New to the table so I don't really know anyone. My question is should I bet the turn considering most of the draws he could have just hit at least a pair, the pot is small, and pretty cordinated. Betting I do run the risk of being cr. So the real question is What Percent Of The Time Must My Opponent Fold For This To Be Correct, and the times he folds does he have hands I wanted him to call with?

[mrkilla]

I would post this in SS might get more help there man

You have two overcards and a flush draw against one opponent who has shown no strength so far in the hand, with just one opponent standing between you and this decent sized pot, you must bet and give yourself a chance to take it down right away, so a turn bet is mandatory in this spot. The real question is should you bluff the river or just check and give up, the pot is pretty big, and a bluff only has to work 13% of the time to be profitable. However, I would also check the river becuz your opponent is never folding a pair, and if he didnt have a pair on the flop (meaning he was likely calling on some weak gutshot draw) the turn card either paird or filled every gutshot/OESD possible with the exception of QJ which you beat anyways. So checking and giving up on the river is the right play IMO.

[JasonP530]

Obviously too late, but the turn is really the place where you want to know if your opponent peels on the flop with nothing, and will fold to a turn bet(ie. calls the flop with A2, K6 and such. If so, a bet is good, as it allows him to fold hands that have outs, and takes away his bluff, since you cant really call with King high against most opponents on the river. If the opponent is very weak, you can check the turn, because they wont bet a pair a lot of times on the river(especially if it is a high card like a J,A, which dont pair you). So you may get to check the hand down if they have a pair. If the opponent is weak, and unlikely to checkraise, that makes me even more likely to bet the turn.

Those are some things to think about when you consider betting or checking. That being said, the pot is big, and your opponent may fold a hand with outs or fold on the river if an ace comes, so I would bet it and hope he folds. If not, hope you hit the ace of spades.

Jason

[CardSharpCook]

there are opponents against whom I would check this board on the turn. These would be players who will chk/raise these low boards often and who will bet the river regardless if I check. It has the advantage of squeezing 2 bets out of them when one of your 15 outs hits. However, the problem is that you are losing to ace high, and there are many ace high hands you can fold out with a bet here. Also, being check/raised isn't the worst thing in the world. You own 33% of the money going in on the turn and get some of that back when he bets into you on a flush river. So yeah, give it a bet.