AT fold

Schneids · #1 03-24-2005, 05:41 PM

UTG limp. MP1 limp. MP2 raise. SB calls. I call in BB with ATs.

Flop Ad9d8c.

I bet, UTG raises, nobody folds so four plus me to the turn after my call.

Turn Q. I check. UTG checks. MP1 bets. Raiser calls. SB calls. I fold.

TStoneMBD · #2 03-24-2005, 05:46 PM

i really doubt anything that anyone says on these forums is going to change your mind about this hand, so i dont know why you posted it.

regardless, i think its a terrible fold.

Schneids · #3 03-24-2005, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
very weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the insight. (EDIt: aka I am going to infer you're implying I have more than 3 outs almost always and when I hit a 3 outer I'm rarely chopping it.)

GreywolfNYC · #4 03-24-2005, 05:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
very weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, very smart. He's got too many ways to make the second best hand. Good fold.

Schneids · #5 03-24-2005, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i really doubt anything that anyone says on these forums is going to change your mind about this hand, so i dont know why you posted it.

regardless, i think its a terrible fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I'm open to anything if lots of people tell me the fold sucks. I'm just wondering.

James282 · #6 03-24-2005, 05:50 PM

Hey mike, looks like someone could have the JT, but I would definitely call here. You have the odds for your gutshot, and there is a distinct possibility you have the best hand since the pfr hasn't bet or raised yet. I wouldcall and re-evalulate on the river.
-James

Danenania · #7 03-24-2005, 05:52 PM

Was this played in one of the higher limit on-line games? At Party 15/30 I would say it's a very bad fold but it could be fairly table/read specific.

Schneids · #8 03-24-2005, 06:10 PM

$40/80.

astroglide · #9 03-24-2005, 06:23 PM

i would checkraise the flop to hose gutshots/single pairs. you happened to get the same effect (minus a natural appearing leading bet on the the turn) by getting utg to surprisingly raise, but i think the flop bet is bad. i also don't like the fold. bigger ace, a straight, a flush draw are possibilities if your opponents are competent but you have plenty of odds for a gutshot if that's all you have. even a 3 out gutshot isn't the end of the world, and neither is a payoff if you end up having to do it based on the river action.

disjunction · #10 03-24-2005, 07:49 PM

This hand makes my head hurt. You need about 3 outs to breakeven (more? less?). You have 3 outs, but it's not 3, because somebody else may have a nonsuited 10, so let's call it 2.5 outs. You'll have to chop sometimes, so let's call it 1.5 outs. You need to be ahead and stay ahead 3.33% of the time to breakeven for 1BB, but the river will cost you another, so it's say 5%.

You can hope for 2 opponents on flush draws, which leaves 1 OESD and an ace, and you have to hope the OESD is the wrong side, which is less likely. I think you may be ahead here more than you think, but that's still not too much, and if there are 2 flush draws out, 1/4 to 1/3 of the deck will hurt you. As I said before it'll cost you 2 BB to find out. I do think you're ahead and will stay ahead about 5% of the time, but I dunno', all this convoluted logic just to break even? I say fold, unless there is anything at all in any of your opponents (would cold-call with weak ace, etc), to make you stay in.