$55: Tell me how bad this push is - Page 2

Michael C. · #11 10-10-2005, 05:02 AM

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I know that 2+2ers would push any 2, but this guy wasn't that good.

[/ QUOTE ] I wish I was in a hand with a 2+2 player that I had notes on that would push any two. If that were the case, I'd raise 600 and call the push. Of course that could knock me out, but AQ is a pretty big favorite over any two, so why not play for the win? In actuallity I think good 2+2ers might push here with any two, but only if they had notes on you and were pretty sure you would fold, or if they had a good hand. So yeah, I would raise 600 here with the blinds that low, but what I'd want/expect the big stack to do here is very contextual, and you probably had some read on his style, no?

Shillx · #12 10-10-2005, 05:09 AM

Raising to T600 and calling a push is flat out terrible. It is like a 1.2% mistake to make this play if you know that he will push over the top with any 2 cards. The goal here is to get the big stack to FOLD as much as possible. If he calls the all-in with all of his hands, pushing is terrible eventhough we are a huge favorite. We are looking to gamble with the smaller stacks or get everyone to fold by pushing here. We have to be sure that the big stack isn't a total donkey before making this push.

Brad

Edited to say that pushing here is far and away the correct play.

mike28 · #13 10-10-2005, 05:47 AM

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I know that 2+2ers would push any 2, but this guy wasn't that good.

[/ QUOTE ] I wish I was in a hand with a 2+2 player that I had notes on that would push any two. If that were the case, I'd raise 600 and call the push. Of course that could knock me out, but AQ is a pretty big favorite over any two, so why not play for the win? In actuallity I think good 2+2ers might push here with any two, but only if they had notes on you and were pretty sure you would fold, or if they had a good hand. So yeah, I would raise 600 here with the blinds that low, but what I'd want/expect the big stack to do here is very contextual, and you probably had some read on his style, no?

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1. AQo is more like 64% against any 2, not a huge favorite.

2. Raising 1/3 of your stack and then folding sucks

3. If the big stack has any idea he's crashing over the top of your t600 raise.

4. Don't raise 1/3 you're stack then fold.

5. push

#14 10-10-2005, 05:58 AM

4. Don't raise 1/3 you're stack then fold. 4. Don't raise 1/3 you're stack then fold. [ QUOTE ]

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he is raising 1/4 of his chips utg
i dont think i would call big stack push because he could very well have pp which is 50/50, or i would risk my tourney on 60/40 when someone has 900 chips and is posting the blind

Michael C. · #15 10-10-2005, 05:59 AM

I think you guys misinterpreted my post. I was just commenting on "a good 2 + 2 player would push any two here vs. a 600 raise." If I knew that were the case, I'd try to get him in every time. Because I'd take a 65% of getting the dominating chip stack and then punishing everybody the rest of the way. As it is now, you aren't sure of anything. So yeah, you are correct that pushing is probably better now that I think about it, I disagree that you wouldn't want to face the big stack if you knew you were a 2-1 favorite. Again, though, what you would do here depends a lot on how the big stack plays. If he's really passive and isn't even going to call 600 without AK or a wired pair, than a smaller raise might make sense?

tigerite · #16 10-10-2005, 06:00 AM

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I think you guys misinterpreted my post. I was just commenting on "a good 2 + 2 player would push any two here vs. a 600 raise." If I knew that were the case, I'd try to get him in every time. Because I'd take a 65% of getting the dominating chip stack and then punishing everybody the rest of the way. As it is now, you aren't sure of anything. So yeah, you are correct that pushing is probably better now that I think about it, I disagree that you wouldn't want to face the big stack if you knew you were a 2-1 favorite. Again, though, what you would do here depends a lot on how the big stack plays. If he's really passive and isn't even going to call 600 without AK or a wired pair, than a smaller raise might make sense?

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You are showing a total lack of understanding of the mathematics and ICM with this post. It's a leak.

mike28 · #17 10-10-2005, 06:04 AM

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4. Don't raise 1/3 you're stack then fold. 4. Don't raise 1/3 you're stack then fold. [ QUOTE ]

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he is raising 1/4 of his chips utg
i dont think i would call big stack push because he could very well have pp which is 50/50, or i would risk my tourney on 60/40 when someone has 900 chips and is posting the blind

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I've been up way too long. All of a sudden I thought 6x3=24.

derf derf

raising 1/4 of your stack then folding sucks

EricW · #18 10-10-2005, 06:09 AM

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I think you guys misinterpreted my post. I was just commenting on "a good 2 + 2 player would push any two here vs. a 600 raise." If I knew that were the case, I'd try to get him in every time. Because I'd take a 65% of getting the dominating chip stack and then punishing everybody the rest of the way. As it is now, you aren't sure of anything. So yeah, you are correct that pushing is probably better now that I think about it, I disagree that you wouldn't want to face the big stack if you knew you were a 2-1 favorite. Again, though, what you would do here depends a lot on how the big stack plays. If he's really passive and isn't even going to call 600 without AK or a wired pair, than a smaller raise might make sense?

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You are showing a total lack of understanding of the mathematics and ICM with this post. It's a leak.

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tigerite is right. You DON'T want to face the big stack when you have a sizable stack yourself when there are shorter stacks because of your stack in relation to the total amount of chips and the prize pool. Winning 65% of the time and not being guaranteed first place while busting out 35% of the time and not getting squat works out to be -EV in the long run.

Michael C. · #19 10-10-2005, 06:13 AM

I don't think everything can be determined by ICM. If you are good with a big stack and can run over the field, you can pretty much be assured of second if you win a showdown with the big stack, and you'd be a heavy favorite for first, with the blinds getting higher. So if you KNEW that the big stacks range was that he'd push with any two, I don't think that's completely ICM-driven. If you think you are better with a big stack than your opponents, what would your percentage be to get 1-2-3 if you win that push? You can't use ICM to figure it, because it doesn't take your abilities with a big stack into the equation... Forgetting the big stack here pushing with anything, I thought the whole point of the 10X rule is that that's the mathamatical point where you can never make a 3X raise and fold. Well here you have 12X the big blind. If you put the big stacks push range very high, and thought the only way he'd go over the top of your AQ is if he was much better, how would ICM calculate it then? ICM is a great tool for certain push/fold/call decisions, as the SnG Power Tools shows. It isn't applicable in every situation, and you're basically just ignoring my part about the reads and what we can do with the big stack, and assigning the big stack a probability regardless of how much I bet.

EricW · #20 10-10-2005, 06:17 AM

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I don't think everything can be determined by ICM. If you are good with a big stack and can run over the field, you can pretty much be assured of second if you win a showdown with the big stack, and you'd be a heavy favorite for first, with the blinds getting higher. So if you KNEW that the big stacks range was that he'd push with any two, I don't think that's completely ICM-driven. If you think you are better with a big stack than your opponents, what would your percentage be to get 1-2-3 if you win that push? You can't use ICM to figure it, because it doesn't take your abilities with a big stack into the equation... Forgetting the big stack here pushing with anything, I thought the whole point of the 10X rule is that that's the mathamatical point where you can never make a 3X raise and fold. Well here you have 12X the big blind. If you put the big stacks push range very high, and thought the only way he'd go over the top of your AQ is if he was much better, how would ICM calculate it then? ICM is a great tool for certain push/fold/call decisions, as the SnG Power Tools shows. It isn't applicable in every situation, and you're basically just ignoring my part about the reads and what we can do with the big stack, and assigning the big stack a probability regardless of how much I bet.

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Well if the blinds are high, then the situation differs. However, the main point here is pushing is 1000x better then calling.

Another thing is again it all depends on chip sizes. If you have 2500 chips, the big stack has 4000, another stack has 1400 and an mini stack has 100, would you call a push from the big stack when you have AQ?