Confused in Scugog

[shemp]

Well, I haven't read the other posts yet, and I'm confused as all hell too, but once they check to me on the turn, I bet.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Jack kicker doesn't play once the board pairs. So the river bet chops against Ax.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good catch, thanks. I don't know where I stand now on the bet... I think I'm against it, as you lose all the potential value from weaker aces that I was counting. Just check behind and hope some chips get pushed your way.

-eric

[elindauer]

hi elysium,

I like your sentiment, thinking about what you are doing is simple and sound advice. In this spot, however, you seem to be using this argument to claim that you should open-limp AT, which is probably wrong. You have position and an excellent hand, raise. Your ideal result is to win the blinds, but if you fail to accomplish this, you're still making money seeing the flop for 2 bets, more than you are making seeing the flop for 1.

Calling essentially gives the blinds a free card, and you're hand, while currently best, is quite vulnerable to the 3 card flop.

Good luck.
Eric

[Gamblor]

[ QUOTE ]
why raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

At the very least, keep the pot shorthanded so that there is a reasonable chance my A-high will win unimproved.

Fold out 87o and K5o from the SB.

Fold 34s and T3o from the BB.

So when the flop comes, as most do, 952, you don't have too much to worry about, even if QJo does call your flop bet looking to improve.

[elysium]

hi joe

stealing the blinds....i threw that in for times when there isn't a poster in the hand. you shouldn't raise with ATo in that spot either unless you have extremely good players in the blinds, and you don't want to tangle with them. even then though, i like my ATo, and will want to do business.

but here?....joe there is no chance of stealing. the poster will call with anything and the blinds know that. the BB will be getting 6-1 at least....your raise to steal will be shot down before your chips hit the table, in this spot.

i am going to tell you people something, and i'm only going to tell it to you once; the great majority of players and posters here and elsewhere are losing players. if that's what you want to achieve in your game, that's fine. losing is fun. winning, on the other hand, is not fun. winning is boring. winning may also be unhealthy. it is unhealthy to be sitting around in a dirty filthy cardroom all day. winners are also made not to feel as welcome when they sit down to play. between winning and losing, in the long run losing may actually be more rewarding than is winning. finally, losing is great entertainment, winning hard work.

i want to make as many of you as i can, misereable. and following my advice will be misery. to anyone who is intelligent enough not to want to turn a great entertaiment experience into hardwork and boring drudgery, my advice to you is 'you probably play this game better than me. keep your cost down to $20 an hour and have fun.'. to all others, if there are others, you shall call with ATo in this spot, and not particularly happily will thou doth make that call.

now look around you. pretty dirty isn't it? welcome to the cardroom. this is where we will begin to force ourselves to think.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
to all others, if there are others, you shall call with ATo in this spot, and not particularly happily will thou doth make that call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Very interesting. You're going to have me thinking/conversing with fellow poker minds about this exact hand for a bit. I really need to rethink my game....cause I would never think of just calling in that spot. Sure if there had been 2 limpers and the co checked, I'd limp. Maybe even 1 limper, but just the blinds? [censored]. I'd be raising every time and you're making it sound horrible. Hmm.

but then you want me 3 betting j5o out of the blinds. I truly do not understand...but I want to.

[PennDisc]

[ QUOTE ]

forget about position, what good is the ATo going to do when rags flop and the little guys come out firing? by the way, that's another reason for limping.

[/ QUOTE ]

You were the one using position as a reason to limp. I think position is more valuable here if you have the initiative. Are you advocating that you limp, and then fold on an undercard flop if one of the blinds bets? How can that be better than stealing the blinds?

This seems like basic poker. You have what is likely the best hand, and you want to charge the lesser hands if they want to draw out. This is especially true since almost all hands have 6 outs on you, so why give free cards that could beat you? Would you check an undercard flop with QQ if your opponent was playing AK faceup?

Pokerstove indicates that against 2 random hands you have 44% equity with ATo, 34% against 3. So if they call, they call - it might be a correct decision for them, but since you have the best hand now with the most equity, you are making money. That may change depending on the flop or the action behind you - at which point you re-evaluate, all part of poker.

You also imply that you expect to do better than steal the blinds over the long run by limping this hand first in on the button. If you can provide some stats that say you average better than 1.5 SB profit open-limping this OTB, or even if you somehow have a better winrate than when open-raising OTB, then you'll spark a lot of interest.

As it is, it doesn't seem like a single other person agrees with open-limping this hand in this position. You say that this kind of play is indicative of losing players, so fine I guess all the responders in this thread must be losing players.

[skp]

I'll go against the grain and say "well played" throughout.

Everyone seems to be assuming that giving a free card is criminal but that free card simply cannot cost you the pot. At most, it can only cost you a fraction of 2 bets.

Now, 2 bets (or a fraction thereof) is a lot but it ain't the pot and therefore checking does not enter the 'criminal" realm. Giving free cards is criminal only if the free card that you give (usually in a multiway pot) goes on to beat you when that hand would have folded to a turn bet.

Here, obviously, there is a pretty good chance that you are the one drawing. So, that makes the turn check even less criminal.

It would be silly to check if you know that you have a very good chance of being in the lead but given all the bets that went in on the flop, you have to have a good measure of doubt.

The river bet is a gimme. No way that either of your oppponents checks a hand better than AT twice.

[joes28]

If you dont raise ATo here, what hands do you raise? AA, you wouldnt raise this here because you dont want to steal the blinds? Im definetly raising AA and ATo because I think my hand is best and I dont want to be seeing a flop with 3 other people in it.

I dont know about most of the posters being losing players or not, but i'd say the average win rate of the posters on this forum is much higher than the win rate of the average player.

[elysium]

hi penn

whether you raise with the ATo in this spot or not, it will not be a decisive factor in determining whether or not you are a winning player. many excellent players raise in this spot everytime.

the issue, though, about the prospects of stealing the blinds should send up a warning flare or two. by now, we should have had one or two in the crowd agree that a steal attempt is not advisable in this situation. there is also a lack of understanding about LP strategy, and it's pretty pervasive. the forum has slipped a notch. frivolous play has been greeted with a general acceptance instead of meaningful scornful destain. losing money now a habit; after all, money's easy to come by these days. why worry? let's have fun. i can play cards. can you play cards? do you know anything about poker? sure do. i can raise!

the truth is that you all are losing a lot of money. the losses are the result of each one of you telling the other how good he or she is. 2+2 has become a social club of delinquent misfits who have no intention of doing the things it takes to show even a crummy dollar profit at the end of the session. by this time, i usually would have had 2 posters with the contrarian viewpoint that stealing the blinds in this spot is not likely. and then, perhaps one lowly voice suggesting that not all steal-raises are successful, you know, just to perhaps slightly quell the 100% of the time win 2 1/2 blind chorus.

not all steal-raises are successful, even if you're stealing with AA, FWIW. uhh...

i could go on, but i won't. the sagacity might be enough to break your spirits or perhaps offend sensitivities, and mustn't offend; no, no, no. i won't pat you on the back, though, either. neither is my advice up for a vote. all you must do is make a yes or no decision, that's fair, isn't it? do you want to improve upon your game, yes or no? then stop casting votes and follow my advice to you. i don't mind being told i'm full of chit on any given piece of advice, just don't gloss over an important issue, like the issue of the prospects of actually stealing the blinds in every retort i've read so far in this post. give me one or two holdouts amongst yous people who will address the high improbability of succeeding, here in the blind steal department, and elsewhere in subsequent posted threads when my advice to you is to address the specific issue outlined and highlighted.

if it's important, i promise that i will do whatever it takes to make you aware of it. just don't fail to likewise acknowledge awareness about the point that has been highlighted by me as i reiterrate to you over and over again, so that you can address it intelligently. doing so will help you not to forget.

you people are going to learn how to play this game by rote, fair enough?