how's this value bet?

[mike l.]

20-40 good live game. lady who plays ok raises in mp, i 3 bet on button w/ AK, bb who is fishy calls, she calls.

the flop is 986 rainbow, checked to me, i bet, and they call.

turn is a T. checked to me and i check.

river is another 8. at this point i put bb on nothing and lady on AQ or AJ. they check to me again and this time i bet.

good bet or pure spew?

[elindauer]

Hi mike,

I don't see how you can read the BB for nothing. What's he calling the flop with that isn't helped by the T on the turn?

It seems more likely that he has some crappy little pair like A6s or 22 and will call, he didn't bet it because the 4 straight scares him. It's not clear to me that the ok playing lady is going to call you with AQ on this board either. I vote for spew.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[Clarkmeister]

I like it.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it.

[/ QUOTE ]

id prefer the bet going in on the turn...

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

id like to bet the turn here in case she has something like KJs or KQ...the fish may call with nothing and may have between 6 and 14 outs to beat you if you're still ahead.

i usually follow through with a bet on the turn and check behind the river in these spots.

as for how you played it that check on the turn and the 8 on the river makes it clear you dont have much of the board. the fish can't call w/ nothing but may call w/ a high and AJ or AQ from the lady will likely look you up.

i like the value bet as you played it...the only downside is if the fish is passive, there are many 1 pair hands he can have that will call and he will likely fold all losing hands...so when the fish calls you lose money in terms of ev value, when the lady calls, you win enough to derive value.

-Barron

[hockey1]

At first blush I didn't mind the river bet, but on reflection I'm pretty sure it's bad. By 3-betting preflop you've narrowed your range of hands pretty significantly. No way you check the turn with most of those; the turn check basically screams "I have AK." Any thinking opponent with anything will call the river bet. Any thinking opponent with less than AK (maybe AQ) will fold. No value to the river bet.

[Paluka]

A river bet is better as a bluff than it is as a value bet. You 3 bet preflop, you aren't getting called by AJ on the river.

[teddyFBI]

I'm having a tough time making sense of the 2 replies who approve of this bet -- albeit they're from far more skilled players than am I.

I think we can all agree that the fishy BB is calling with any pair, as you've all but told them that you've got AK or AQs.

So versus the BB, there's absolutely no value to this bet. I also think the only hand the lady calls you with that you beat is AQ...that's a pretty darn thin value bet.

I wouldn't mind hearing some further explanation from the 2 regulars who "like" it.
I can't help but harken back to the theory of value betting from TOP, i think it was: it's not if you have the best hand, it's having the best hand the majority of TIMES YOU ARE CALLED. I don't see that happening here.

[andyfox]

Might not mike play a big pocket pair this way?: when the T comes on the turn, he could be afraid of a straight, but not be worried about an overcard on the river, so he could check. When both his opponents check again, he would now bet his pair for value.

That said, most opponents would put him on A-K here and play accordingly.

[Gabe]

this depends on how the other two players are playing. would the fishey player check-raise the flop with a pair on this flop? would he or mp bet a pair now that you checked the turn? are they the types to be too afraid to bet a pair or better because of the one card straight but not afraid to call with it? does the mp think you're fos enough to bluff two players on a board like this?