Why favorites are on a roll in NFL '05

[legend42]

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I totally disagree with this statement. The mathematical edge of sports juice or slot machines or craps etc is virtually guaranteed. Once you start taking sides in sports wagers you are gambling. They don't want to gamble when they have a sure thing with balanced action. As I have stated the nature of the business occassionally forces them into a side and when that happens they try to make it the side they wantbut that isn't their desire.

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Then why do they put out lines that they know will get heavy one-sided play, and then not move them a pip when the action comes in 80/20%?

[NoChance]

Another article: NFL Underdogs: Week 14

All you hear about is how the favorites are on a roll and the books are losing business. So now my question becomes if the linemakers are so good why haven't they adjusted to make up for this odd season? Why arent the favorites favored by a few more points? Are we seeing that this week with 3 teams favored by at leat 13?

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All you hear about is how the favorites are on a roll and the books are losing business. So now my question becomes if the linemakers are so good why haven't they adjusted to make up for this odd season? Why arent the favorites favored by a few more points? Are we seeing that this week with 3 teams favored by at leat 13?

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It's interesting that you used the words "losing business" in your post. While the books have lost a lot of money over the last 6 weeks, most likely they have not at all lost the business of the favorites players. They will likely be betting this weekend and right up until week 17. What would bother the books is if these bettors took off and stopped betting. As long as a run of underdog winners hit, the books won't much care about this 6 week run because they would likely win a very good chunk of it back and maybe more. Like Tech said in this thread (or maybe another), the books are ideally after a large handle played on NFL games (hold percentage) and want to make the lines for favorites just tantalizing enough so that the books won't lose favorite bettors' business. The chance of the books continuing to get killed by favorites exists but they're willing to take that chance to win back their money.

I did not mean to say 'losing business' I mean to say losing money or just not making as much.

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I did not mean to say 'losing business' I mean to say losing money or just not making as much.

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I kind of used that line to go off on a little tangent/answer but I do agree with you, the linesmakers have adjusted while keeping the favorite bets just tantalizing enough for the amateur bettors flush with cash to continue laying out more money on them.

The favorites winning so much has greatly effected my Survivor pool. Usaully by week 5 there is enough people eliminated to start a 2nd pool for the season. Also, the pools never last past week 10 but this year it is still going and there are still 5 people left. This survivor season has been trivially easy thus far when it is usaully a crapshoot in seasons past due to the home dogs who were winning then.

[DougOzzzz]

Looks like the tide is turning today.