(22) AKs hand, near bubble

[Askilus]

A bit OT, but...

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I mean, the 10xBB rule, shaky as it may be, is mantra around 2+2 for a reason, and I've got 18BB here with plenty of 10xBB stacks to act.

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I you would like to, I would be very glad if you described this "mantra" to me who hasen't been around here for that long. < 10*BB = Push, > 10 * BB = normal raise?

[Bill Poker]

the effective stack is 12 BB except BB which has 15BB.

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You can't lose by pushing preflop here.

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Well I think this is one of those situations where it may be +EV to push preflop, but (a lot) more +EV just to make a standard raise. I mean, the 10xBB rule, shaky as it may be, is mantra around 2+2 for a reason, and I've got 18BB here with plenty of 10xBB stacks to act. There's just no reason to push.

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[mlagoo]

thats the jist (gist?) of it.

the idea is that it doesnt make sense to put in a quarter or more of your stack with a raise and then fold to a reraise, so you may as well push in order to maximize your fold equity (which is, basically, the money you gain because of the chance that your opponent(s) will fold).

it's a loosey goosy rule, and there are times when its fine to push with 15 (or 40)xBB, and times where it might be ok to limp with 8xBB. but it works pretty well as a general rule.

[Shillx]

If you never fold to a push, shoving and raising to T250 are the exact same move with just one key difference. You never get put into the spot that you were in during this hand. You might have 18bb behind, but almost everyone else has either 11-12 bb in their stack.

If you intend to fold to a push then it changes everything, but I can't see that as a viable option in this spot.

Brad

[mlagoo]

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If you never fold to a push, shoving and raising to T250 are the exact same move with just one key difference.

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i need to get back to studying, but i'm not sure this is the case.

i think that if we shove, hands like AQ-AT (AQ may call anyway) may go away, and those are hands that we definitely want to stick around. I mean, in this case, it didnt work out that one stuck around, but I want AJ calling that raise everytime.

Not to mention the times that AJ-AT, KQ, etc., decide to push over the top. Grrreeeat!

So I think there is bit more of a difference =/

[Askilus]

Oki, I kinda figured that, thanks for confirming it! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Slim Pickens]

I think your read on the opponent is critical here. Any solid player who smooth calls a raise like that for 1/5 of his stack is hiding something. A "typical" 22's opponent will call preflop with a lot of hands, so I'll just continue assuming "normal" opponents. I see a lot of garbage coming along here. The real problem with that flop is that a lot of garbage just hit it, and you didn't really. On the plus side, I don't really see even a typical 22's dufus calling with anything less than TPTK. PP's 99 and below (~=77) are folding to a push immediately, as are any middle and some top pair hands. You're only two decent options are to push here or check-fold, and right now I'm leaning toward a push.

[durron597]

I don't like betting this flop because it almost always hit your opponent unless he has exactly AQ, in which case a lot of the time he will give you a free turn.

[mlagoo]

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I don't like betting this flop because it almost always hit your opponent unless he has exactly AQ, in which case a lot of the time he will give you a free turn.

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well this is, of course, the other side of it. but geez, check/folding seems so wrong here. i dunno.

edit: not to mention, like slim said, it missed him if he called pf with a medium/low pocket pair (it is a 22, after all).

the only problem is if he called with QJ preflop, he's never folding it here. he might fold AT.

[tewall]

Another rule which leads to similar results is to go all-in if a normal bet would be 40% of your stack. If your raise pre-flop and get called, you'll most likely want to continue with a bet regardless, so with 10XBB this leads to being pot-committed by the flop anyway, so might as well get it in first so you have the fold equity.

This post is an interesting situation because AK dominates many hands that would go over the top of it, so the normal raise is a bit of a baiting tactic.