Paradigm for Stud/8 -- Critique Wanted, Please

[AlanBostick]

Here is an idea that's been crystalizing in my mind recently:

Eight-or-better stud is not really a seven-card game; to first order, it is really a five-card game with two additional betting rounds.

To put it another way, the big money-making hands in stud/8 are the ones that develop locks or near-locks on fifth street, and can either freeroll the opposition or extract money from opponents who are drawing. Therefore, players should favor hands that offer possibilities of building fifth-street locks, and tend to drop out when those locks don't develop.

This is only to first order, of course. The second-order correction to this probably ought to cover situations where one catches not bad but mediocre on fourth or fifth street -- pairing rather than bricking up, for example, catching an 8 when head-up against an obvious high hand, picking up some sort of backdoor draw, etc. -- and knowing when pot size and one's opponents' likely holdings justify continuing to play a hand. And there is of course richness and complexity to the game beyond these points, too.

What do people think of this notion? Is it too obvious to need to be said? Is it dangerously misleading? Is it true but incomplete?

Would you consider it to be good advice for stud/8 newbies?

[Zoe's Echo]

Alan,

Since you were kind enough to answer my bankroll question I thought I would take a shot at yours.

I think that the concept of a 5 card lock is the ideal and is certainly the easiest hand to play. In an agressive game with lessor or more agressive players this strategy works well even after accounting for the times when even the best 5 card hands might get "run down" - split nut low for example. However, in my limited experience, players that have a sense of the game will tend to fold or to slow down against a scary three card board. This behavior results in a lot of split small pots or small scoops.

I have found that hands that are almost locks on fifth street, four to a strong low and flush, will be more profitable as some players who might catch a weak (say 7 or 8 low) on 5th would be less likely to muck to your brick. They potentially could bet into you allowing an opportunity for a raise. In this scenario, you have positive EV to make a better hand and getting their money in prior to completing should add significant profit to your overall play. With the profit comes a higher degree of variance as well.

It seems that jamming hands with strong potential against weak made hands would in the long run be more profitable. Inherent in this concept is the recognition of when your drawing cards are truly live. Four to a flush and low is not nearly as valuable when a signficant number of your live cards are on someone's board or in the muck. I have seen people jamming with these hands against made hands without the recognition of their true odds. Disasterous!

Not by any means the be all end all answer to your question but some personal observation from a lower limit player.

Good Luck

[kirisim]

Well, the situation you have described is one of the easiest to play in the game. But it doesn't come up very often. For example, if you are going high against multiple lows, you are often not able to jam on fifth unless you have a straight or better. You definitely can't do it with two pair.

I remember one memorable "hand of a lifetime" in which I had (AK)KAA on fifth, an invulnerable high hand, against 4 opponents drawing to lows. On fifth one opponent made a 76 straight and we capped it. On 6th another made a 75 low and it was capped again. On the river the last opponent made a wheel, capped again. It was easy for me to play that hand - I couldn't lose. I had an invulnerable high hand. But that hand was just what I said it was - the "hand of a lifetime."

In my experience, having an absolute lock might come up once in an eight hour session.

[AlanBostick]

In my experience, having an absolute lock might come up once in an eight hour session.

That's funny; I just got one on PokerStars halfway through reading your response.

I made a 75 on fifth street (against an 86 and two paired high doorcards). Needless to say, I drove my hand hard; the eight paired up on sixth; I caught low, and the paired doorcards caught each others' doorcards. I rivered a wheel and scooped a large pot.

Low locks are a lot easier to come by than high locks, especially when head-up against a high hand.

[Vehn]

Alan I think you may be a little off base here. Your statement seems to imply that 6th and 7th street don't matter much, but as it says in Ray's book, stud/8 is the most commonly spread poker game where the last card changes things more than any other version of casino poker. Plus I feel that later street play is much more important in making/saving bets, 4th street is frequently fairly straight forward IMO.

[AlanBostick]

Plus I feel that later street play is much more important in making/saving bets, 4th street is frequently fairly straight forward IMO.

Later street play is very important for making bets; but the second most important street for saving bets is fourth street, because folding here when a promising hand catches bad will save a lot of bets on later streets. (The most important street for saving bets is, of course, third street.)

[Andy B]

If what you're saying is true, then the majority of my profit should come from hands that are made by fifth street. I'm pretty sure that that isn't true. On the biggest pot I've ever won, I made my hand on sixth street. A lot of my other big hands didn't develop before sixth street. The two biggest pots I've lost (that I can think of offhand) were decided by the river card. I think I hit a river card once, too; it's been a while. I think that it's fair to say that third street is the most important round, followed by fifth street, but the other streets are pretty important too.

If you make your hand on fifth street (1) it may be very obvious and (2) the pot probably isn't very big yet. This can allow people to get away from their hands more readily. If you don't make your hand until sixth, people may be more tied on. Just a thought.

OK, biggest pot I've ever won: $30/60 stud/8, $5 ante, $10 bring-in. I start with (45)6. Low card brings it in, a couple of people call, I make it $30, and I think only seven of us saw fourth street. I catch a 5. Not ideal, but I'll take it. Nothing else looks terribly threatening. Checked to me and I bet. I don't think we lost anybody. On sixth street I catch a 4, giving me two pair. One of my full house cards has shown. Still, no one is showing anything, so I bet, hoping that maybe someone will fold. I think someone had the temerity to raise on this round. We might be down to five six players at this point. On sixth street, another of my boat cards dies in front of me. I'm about done with the hand, when a Four falls on me. Yippee! Full house, and these guys all think I'm going low. My Fours are high and I bet. Across the table from me is PH, a good player, well, a good hold'em player, well, a good hold'em player when he shows up to play. Anyway, PH has made what is quite obviously a King-high flush and raises. He's caught a third suited card, and he wouldn't raise with a set when I'm showing small straight cards. He has a flush, and everyone should know this. FG, a delightfully awful player, calls two bets cold, and PH and I end up capping it. I think that other players called the first bet or two, but it was just the three of us after sixth street. On the river, I don't buy any help (not that I need it). I bet out, and PH just calls. I think that he senses that he may be in trouble, or maybe he's just going for the overcall. In any event, FG now raises! FG isn't showing much. He could have a low, or a flush, or a full house, or something else. You never can tell with this guy. At least I can't. Anyway, FG and I end up capping it, with PH calling the whole way. FG calls "flush." Jack-high no less. My hand is good. PH shows his King-high flush. Biggest pot I've ever seen, about $3100, and Andy B scoops!

That was a Wednesday afternoon this past April. The picture I use on this site was taken later that night. I bought in for my usual $1500. That's me with about $8000 worth of chips in front of me. Those were the days, my friends.

[Vehn]

Tell me again why I'm not playing $30/$60 stud/8 at CP andy.

[Andy B]

I think that fifth street is more important in the saving bets department than fourth street. Your fifth street calls often commit you until the end. Now it is true that bad fourth street calls can compound themselves and cost you oodles of money, but the fifth street bets are, well, bigger.

[Andy B]

Probably because losing $935 on one hand would make you sick to your stomach. I'm thinking of sticking with yellow chip games so that I can live a somewhat more normal life again.

The game is still good, or was a month ago when I was last down there, but FG and a couple of other extreme live ones don't play it anymore, so it's nowhere near the game that it was in the spring.