Bet out, or give a free card?

[AlanBostick]

Here's a hand I'm wondering about from last night.

It's the 6-12 stud game at the Oaks -- the biggest stud game in the Bay Area!! -- and the structure is $0.50 ante, $2 bring-in, complete to $6. The table is full, has one real soft spot, and the other players range from third-rate-solid to half-way-decent (I rate myself as a half-way-decent stud player, and one of the best at the table).

I am sitting to the left of the bring-in, holding hidden eights with a ten up, and a two-flush in spades. Two spades are out, and so are two jacks. The highest other card on the board is the nine of diamonds, to the bring-in's immediate right. This player is another of the best in the game.

I open by completing the bet, and everyone drops out but the nine of diamonds, who calls. Fourth street gives me the ten of clubs and my opponent the ten of diamonds: (8d 8s) Ts Tc vs (XX)9d Td. I bet a full $12, and my opponent calls. I put him on some kind of draw, perhaps diamonds or a straight draw.

On fifth street, I catch an offsuit rag (call it the trey of hearts) and my opponent catches the nine of hearts, pairing HIS doorcard.

If my read is correct, he's just improved from second-best hand to second-best hand; but he just might have three nines. I think for a long time, and decide to trust my read and bet into him. He just calls.

Sixth street gives ANOTHER offsuit blank to me, and gives my opponent the eight of hearts. So our boards look like:

Me: (8d 8s) Ts Tc 3h 4c

Him: (X X) 9d Td 9h 8h

He may have not hit his flush yet; he may have made his straight; he might even have three nines or a hidden, bigger pair (although I tend to doubt these because he raised me neither on third nor fifth streets). One of MY tens and one of my eights are gone, leaving me only two outs with which to fill up.

Do I bet into him, and risk being raised by a hand I have little hope of outdrawing to beat, or do I check into him and risk giving a free card to a draw?

[AlanBostick]

I checked into him, and he checked after me.

My river card did not improve my hand, and I checked. He checked again, and turned up three nines and four diamonds. He claimed that he caught his third nine on the river, and, given the play of the hand, I see little reason to doubt him. He also said that if I bet into him on sixth street, he was going to call me.

In an FTOP sense, I made a catastrophic error by laying him infinite pot odds on sixth street; but in fact I was in a terrible spot -- my redraw was so thin that I was seriously considering folding on sixth street if he bet into me. (If it's checked on sixth street, I am somewhat more likely to call on the river, because my opponent is a good enough player to bluff occasionally in that spot.)

[Andy B]

Without reading the results, I'd say you have a bet. You raised with a Ten in the door, making your most likely hand a pair of Tens (unless you're the sort of player who doesn't raise with Tens, which apparently you're not). In order for your opponent to have a completed straight, he would have had to have called a full bet in a short-handed pot on third street with (QJ)9 with at least one, and probably two, dead Tens. Since you say he's a decent player, this seems unlikely. Let's see, he could have 76 in the hole for a straight, but he'd have to have called a double-bet with a gutshot against a paired door card on fourth street. It's possible that he had a straight-flush draw and made the straight, but that's only one possibility out of many possible flush draws.

[Andy B]

Your "catastrophic" error is really only catastrophic if he would have folded to a sixth street bet, and he wouldn't have.

[AlanBostick]

Nonsense. It's the difference between laying odds worth your opponent's calling in order to get there and laying infinite odds in order to get there.

Unless your opponent is a favorite to beat you (imagine a straight-flush draw versus top pair on the flop in hold'em), you are better off charging her for her draws, whether or not you are laying her the right price to call you.

The point is that, over time, the extra bets you earn when she misses compensate for the extra bets you lose when she gets there.

[CJC]

You Bet...you are against a flush draw.

This is a weak opponent who will play a draw against a raisers paired doorcard. Especially shorthanded.

CJ

[Mason Malmuth]

I think for a long time, and decide to trust my read and bet into him. He just calls.

If your read is correct there is a good chance that he will bet anyway if you check. If he doesn't bet, but has something like a flush draw with a couple of overcards (as well as the pair) then you come out ahead since he is a small favorite to end up with the better hand.

MM

[Mason Malmuth]

In an FTOP sense, I made a catastrophic error by laying him infinite pot odds on sixth street

If you think this, you need to work on your stud game. When decent players call on fifth street, they almost always call on sixth street unless you catch something very threatening. Given the boards and the play of the hand, he should call virtually every time. Thus at worse, you gave up a theorectical small portion of a bet.

MM

[Mason Malmuth]

Andy is right, and it's not even close. It doesn't compensate for the times that you get raised. See Seven-Card Stud for Advanced Players for more discussion.

MM

[Mason Malmuth]

Here's a simple hand that in my mind clearly demonstrates why stud is a superior game to hold 'em. It's superior because it is far more complex which allows experts to increase the gap between them and typical players than hold 'em does.

Notice I said that it's a simple hand. But that's in a stud sense. Hold 'em hands only rarely get this complex. That's why most of my play today is in the stud games, not hold em.

It's also why someone, like this poster, who has a reasonably good understanding of poker principles, and who obviously works at his game, can get things very wrong. Yes, it takes much longer to become a stud expert than a hold 'em expert. But it's also why the best stud players do a little better than the best hold 'em players as long as they are in a place where decent size limits are spread.

Best wishes,
Mason [img]/forums/images/icons/grin.gif[/img]