PLO8 -- who plays bad?

[emptyshell]

Honestly, I wouldn't have called the $20 on the flop, unless I had a read on Other Guy as being LAG postflop (your read seems to be the opposite.) It would be odd for him to raise something less than the nuts here with so many people in postflop. He is not likely to have the "blockers" that you have, so it would be a very bold play to raise a set or the low straight. In general, I don't place that much value on holding blockers when so many players see the flop. Also, as a rule, I think it's a bad idea to play a pot that is currently small but likely to become big without the nuts or a good draw to the nuts, especially when a lot of players see the flop.

If I called the $20, your raise when the action comes back seems like a decent, albeit dangerous move. With all the action, it would seem likely that both Villain and OtherGuy have the broadway straight (the flat call suggests OtherGuy doesn't have a redraw or that he's overplaying a set.) As long as you have the best flush draw and neither player has a set, getting allin on the flop is the most EV+ move you are likely to have the opportunity to make on this hand. In the worst case scenario, at least you aren't drawing completely dead [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Of course, if "Other Guy" had folded to the reraise, a fold by you would be mandatory.

If neither of them had the nuts on the flop, you've found a very nice table.

[Ribbo]

The chance of someone having the nut flush draw is 15%, the chance of one of the other two having a naked ace on that flop is also 15%. In the case of the naked ace, I would jam with it to get other non nut flush draws to fold if I have some other hand like AQ or a set on the flop.
I believe QQ99 HAS live cards on that flop 3 handed, whether it be the Q9 or the flush draw. The chance of AQ and nut flush draw being out there I put at maybe 7%. This would give you live cards and put a 3 ways shove odds for you at around 33% worst case scenario. Best case scenario is they both have a set and you have them dicked over good style. Either way with the money already in the pot (you only need around 30% equity on that flop to break even) I would call.

[Wintermute]

I just noticed that the Villian has a relatively short stack here (should read more carefully), which changes things slightly, especially if Other Guy is the type to try to isolate a short stack who he suspects might be making a move on the pot. Still, I don't think it changes this much, since hero is ~LAG and already protecting the pot by leading at it.

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Take a guess here:
For Villain
1. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?

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20%

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2. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?

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5%

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3. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?

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75% or whatever is left

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For OtherGuy, same questions on how likely he is to have one of those hands, but also add in what percent chance you think he will fold one of those hands if I jam here (further info on OtherGuy: VPIP 18; W$SD=19, WSD=59. Hero has been a bit loose and aggressive so far but not been at the table very long)
4. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?

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40%; ~0%

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5. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?

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40%; 0% (by the way, I'm lumping in B-way with other redraws as well)

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6. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?


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20%; no idea, maybe 50%?


FWIW, I really hope this post doesn't end in something like "Villian had junk, Other Guy raised w/ just top set in an attempt to isolate against the short stack, and called my all-in raise and t/r came brick brick for my scoop"... b/c I think the range of hands here is going to make a fold the best option, although I admit that the range of hands assigned is heavily dependent on opinion.

[Jorge10]

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1. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?

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80%

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2. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?


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50%

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3. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?


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20%

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For OtherGuy, same questions on how likely he is to have one of those hands, but also add in what percent chance you think he will fold one of those hands if I jam here (further info on OtherGuy: VPIP 18; W$SD=19, WSD=59. Hero has been a bit loose and aggressive so far but not been at the table very long)
4. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?


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50%

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5. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?


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10%

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6. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?


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50%

Also I was other guy, but ill let greg post the results, and also I pulled these numbers out of nowhere, in other words I made them up so they have no math to back them up, just read based, lol.

[Wintermute]

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the flat call suggests OtherGuy doesn't have a redraw

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I disagree; if he has a redraw, he (or at least I) would probably call to get Hero to come along or attempt a raise... all a raise will do in OtherGuy's position with B-way+redraw is scare away all the hands he dominates, unless Hero has naked B-way only, in which case you're back to wanting him to stick around.

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Of course, if "Other Guy" had folded to the reraise, a fold by you would be mandatory.

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Not sure about this either; what's your reasoning? We can assign a much wider range of hands to Villian since he's shortstacked. Bare nut flush draw seems like a strong possibility.

[emptyshell]

I missed that Villain was shortstacked; that does change things a bit. (I'm taking too much cold medication; it's turning my brain to mush. I suggest you take anything I say with a grain of salt for the next few days.) It widens the possible hand range for both OtherGuy and Villain. Of course, against just the shortstack, Hero would want to call. It also makes me less certain that the BW straight is even out there (although, I think it's the most likely hand for OtherGuy). It's probably still a fold, at least the second time around. If gergery had mentioned OtherGuy was Jorge, I would fold 100% of the time to the first raise.

In general, are you saying you would play, say, a set + BW slowly? I usually think of those type of hands as a way to double up against another BW, in which case I'd want to get the money in quickly to avoid losing action after I hit. I guess you will encounter the occasional player that just finished reading Badger's page and will fold a naked BW straight, but that seems like the less frequent case.

[Ribbo]

Those stats do prove one point quite well, how weak tight you are. Don't play at higher limits, you will get eaten alive by the blinds.

[Jorge10]

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Those stats do prove one point quite well, how weak tight you are. Don't play at higher limits, you will get eaten alive by the blinds.

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Im not going to get into a flame war here, but lets just say you have no idea how I play.

[gergery]

Your percentages need to add to 100% for each player.
Right now your #s add to 150% for Villain.

Btw, I did not know that OtherGuy was Jorge when I played the hand.

-g

[Jorge10]

Whoops wasnt paying attention, just looked at each question.