PLO8 -- who plays bad?

[gergery]

Other Guy in this hand has tight preflop #s, somewhat tight post
Villain was loose preflop, seemed tight post.

Table xxxx (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Villain ( $97.43)
6 other dudes
Seat 8: OtherGuy ( $275.29)
Seat 9: Folder ( $247.15)
Seat 10: Hero ( $270.89)
Folder posts small blind (1)
Folder posts big blind (2)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]
OtherGuy calls (2)
Folder calls (2)
Hero calls (2)
Villain raises (4) to 4
Folder folds.
Folder folds.
Folder calls (3)
J0HNNYWAD calls (2)
OtherGuy calls (2)
Folder calls (2)
Hero calls (2)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] pot=$24
Folder bets (3)
folder calls (3)
OtherGuy raises (20) to 20
Folder folds.
Hero calls (20)
Villain raises (93.43) to 93.43
Villain is all-In.
Folder folds.
folder folds.
OtherGuy calls (73.43)
Hero raises (246.89) to 266.89
Hero is all-In.


Comments?

If you are up against something like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] then you're in big trouble.

[Ribbo]

The chance of one holding AQ is slim, since you're holding two queens. Someone is overplaying their hand, but I don't believe it's the Q9 in this case.

[Cooker]

I think I agree with Ribbo (whose advice and style I have just recently began to fully appreciate). Both players still in with you have stuck in raises on the flop, but you have solid blockers against better straights/same straight. This is weird action for neither of them to turn up the nuts, but AQ is unlikely due to you holding QQ (maybe you should check the odds to see just how unlikely for future reference). I suspect the villain might just have a nut flush draw and figures he will be getting around 2 to 1 on a push since 2 players have already put in fairly big bets. You have blockers though, so you are in pretty good shape here. I think otherguy still in has trips. It could be the other way around, but then I think otherguy wouldn't put in the raise after a bet and a caller with just an FD (unless you have a read that he is a little crazy with FDs which some people are). In the long run with 2 other people paying in you are going to be good often enough to go ahead and push. Sometimes your flush draw may be good backup when you are against the AQ.

[Wintermute]

You say they both seem tight postflop. I'm nearly 100% sure that someone holds the broadway straight here if that's the case; having the Q "blockers" doesn't amount to sh!t given this action.

So it looks to me like you're falling back on a Q-high flush draw, and even though 2 outs give you the mortal nuts, I'd prefer to let this go when the action comes around a second time, despite the good pot odds; if they were loose postflop, then maybe you could justify drawing to a 3rd nut flush given the odds you're getting.

Of course, in the moment, I might be tempted to raise (since if you call you're committed) if something seemed fishy about the timing of the bets, the previous hand went strangely, etc.

But looks like a pretty easy fold after the fact.

[Mendacious]

Well Hero is clearly in questionable territory. Calling a raise pre-flop with QQ99 is marginal. But you are looking for a Q or a 9 and no overcards. Your flush draw sucks, and playing the Q9 straight just because you have another queen with 2 other players playing, to me, is putting your head in the sand and praying for your straight flush draw.
Its not a situation I would like for a lot of money on a regular basis.

I think the "two blockers" mentality is a trap. When I favor analysis like "two blockers" over my read on the players and betting I usually get slammed.

[Ribbo]

If you have a read on one of the players as an maniac, then it makes this play a lot easier. Since the other player will also know this information, he will often make a isolation reraise (say with AA and nut flush draw or 2 pair) because it is unlikely the third player in the hand has a good enough hand to call with (ie AQ) when you hold AA, and you have outs anyway even if called. If I knew the maniac was getting reraised to try and make me fold I would call. I would be more swayed towards folding if the maniac who bet just got called by the second player, as it would be more likely he is smooth calling to make me come along for the ride.

[Wintermute]

Well, we're provided with reads: tight post-flop. If that read proves to be inaccurate (we'll see the hands regardless of the decision to call or fold), then it's time to adjust those reads.

Broadway has to be out there, and Q-high isn't strong enough to draw with against two tight postF players.

[Jorge10]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the "two blockers" mentality is a trap. When I favor analysis like "two blockers" over my read on the players and betting I usually get slammed.

[/ QUOTE ]

That right there is a great reply.

Heres the thing, its nice the two blockers thing is going on, but you cant be blinded to the betting patterns and what is going on before your eyes because you have "blockers". A guy bet out, he got raised, then a third guy came over the top and reraised him. If that doesnt say I got the straight plus a damn good redraw, I really dont know how else he can say it. How about he types it in on the chat box?

The fact that the other guy just called him says he is weak, but heres the problem you dont have the nuts and you know the other guy who is all in has a monster, so why not fold and let the guy who just called him try and deal with him. In this spot you will run into the nut straight every single time and all you are really hoping for is that the queen high flush draw comes, but even then who knows if thats good.

[gergery]

Thanks for the posts -- some followup questions.

Take a guess here:
For Villain
1. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?
2. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?
3. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?

For OtherGuy, same questions on how likely he is to have one of those hands, but also add in what percent chance you think he will fold one of those hands if I jam here (further info on OtherGuy: VPIP 18; W$SD=19, WSD=59. Hero has been a bit loose and aggressive so far but not been at the table very long)
4. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?
5. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?
6. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?

--g