At higher stakes, how much EV are bonuses?

[adamstewart]

I can't remember the last time I received a bonus, much less went chasing after one.


Someone correct me if I'm wrong here:

Let's say a person plays $10/$20 SH, and has a rakeback deal about 30%. From my calculations this works out to an average of roughly 8.8 cents per hand.


Now let's say Party offers a "$100 bonus for playing 7x in raked hands."

Now at $10/$20 SH, I've calculated that roughly 83% of the hands played are raked. Therefore, one would have to play around 850 hands in order to have 700 "raked" hands.

850 hands x $0.088 in rakeback would have equaled just under $75.

Therefore the $100 bonus has given us an edge of $25 over 850 hands. (Remember that rakeback is not earned for those hands that count towards bonuses, at least that's my understanding).

For me, 3-tabling would take me just under 3.5 hours to play those 850 hands.

Therefore the bonus has given me an additional $7.14 per hour over the course of those 3.5 hours.

Of course we also have to figure in the time and energy spent chasing such bonuses, and theorectically deduct this from the extra income rate.


All in all, I wonder how much EV actually comes from these bonuses? At the even higher stakes, the EV would be even less....



Adam

[jman220]

[ QUOTE ]
(Remember that rakeback is not earned for those hands that count towards bonuses, at least that's my understanding).

[/ QUOTE ]

No, rakeback is still earned for those hands that count towards bonuses. Its just that the amount you recieve in bonus money is deducted from your total MGR. The way it works out is basically, if you're recieving a 30 percent rakeback deal, and you have an MGR of $1000 for the month, normally you'd get $300. But lets say you clear a $200 Bonus. Then your MGR is $1000-$200=800. 800*.3= 240 + the $200 bonus means you make $440, instead of $300. It is always +EV to be unlocking a bonus (at least on the party network). I agree that if you're a high stakes player, you shouldn't go chasing after bonuses at other sites, but you should still do all the reloads at the site you play at, even if you have rakeback.

Edit: Even if you were a ridiculously high stakes player, the bonus would be +EV, hypothetical MGR of $10,000. Normally You'd recieve $3,000 in rakeback. If you do a $200 bonus, then its $10,000-$200=$9,800*.3=2940+$200=$3140. So you still make more with the bonus.

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]

Therefore the $100 bonus has given us an edge of $25 over 850 hands. (Remember that rakeback is not earned for those hands that count towards bonuses, at least that's my understanding).


[/ QUOTE ]

If you have 30% rakeback and will rake more than $100, the ev of the bonus is $70 regardless of what game you play.

Edited to remove summary because jman said it better than me.

[adamstewart]

I just though of another way to look at it:


Let's say that a player makes $135/hr playing $10/$20 SH.

It follows that it takes him roughly 11 minutes to make $25.


I'm sure that the process of chasing after a bonus, withdrawing/depositing funds, etc, takes around 11 minutes on average (probably more).


Therefore, it seems that bonuses may actually be -EV for higher stakes - neutral EV at best.



Adam

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(Remember that rakeback is not earned for those hands that count towards bonuses, at least that's my understanding).

[/ QUOTE ]

No, rakeback is still earned for those hands that count towards bonuses. Its just that the amount you recieve in bonus money is deducted from your total MGR. The way it works out is basically, if you're recieving a 30 percent rakeback deal, and you have an MGR of $1000 for the month, normally you'd get $300. But lets say you clear a $200 Bonus. Then your MGR is $1000-$200=800. 800*.3= 240 + the $200 bonus means you make $440, instead of $300. It is always +EV to be unlocking a bonus (at least on the party network). I agree that if you're a high stakes player, you shouldn't go chasing after bonuses at other sites, but you should still do all the reloads at the site you play at, even if you have rakeback.

[/ QUOTE ]



ahhh. My bad.


Perhaps I'll get around to figuring out the actual EV of a bonus then.... but for now, I must go to bed! Man, this site is too addicting!

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[eleventy]

I'd bet taking the time to figure this out is -EV

[flair1239]

Playing 5/10 full, I keep buy-ins on 7 different sites.

If a site has a bonus going I always make sure to give it first look. If there is a good game I play it. If there is not I move on.

To me it makes no sense to keep a inflated bankroll on a couple of sites. I constantly hit bonuses. There have been some months where I have made 150-400 per site off of four different sites.

As long as you are playing in a decent games, most bonuses are better than rakeback anyway.

[adamstewart]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet taking the time to figure this out is -EV

[/ QUOTE ]


No. If bonuses ended up being -EV, then it would +EV to stop chasing them in the long run.

One must always be thinking about the game when away from the table. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


Adam

[CallMeIshmael]

This also assumes that you would be playing poker if you werent depositing.

At some point during the day, you generally get your fill of poker for that day. If you desposit while surfing the web, it doesnt have the same oppurtunity cost.

[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet taking the time to figure this out is -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

The only time I think that they would be -EV, is when they cause you to sit in a game that you would otherwise not play in, for the reason of clearing the bonus.