AK UTG Late Stage of Tourney

$30 MTT on Pokerroom last night. ~700 entries, down to about 35, ITM but nothing meaningful until FT. I have T80k which is ~12th in chips w/ avg ~40k and leaders are 150k+. Villian has ~90k. Table action has been raise/fold for a while w/ some shorts pushing the action on occasion and some key clashes of premium hands. Both villian and I are likely perceived as TAG - I've been raising just enough to maintain my position and only hands I showed down have been premium. Likewise for the villian.

Blinds 3k/6k I'm UTG w/ AKo and raise to 15k (standard for me), folds to villian in SB who completes, BB folds.

Flop AJJ rb. Villian checks, I continue for 15k. Villian raises to 30k.

What range do you put villian on and what do you do?

you have 80k, 15k in preflop, 15k value bet postflop, now your down to 50k and if you call down to 35k. This is definitely either a push or fold. I would push. Range of villain could literally be any pocket pair, (but since you labeled him TAG and he called 12k preflop I'd say minimum 77 or even minimum 99), AK or AQ (AJ possible but not as likely for TAG) and possibly a broadway suited connector like KQs or QJs (QJ probably not as likely for TAG).

The hands with J in it I can not see TAG playing, especially against another TAG. The more likely of these holdings is AK, AQ, KK, QQ or JJ (JJ would play slower than this, most likely). The question is based on this do you push or fold. I probably push and get busted out.

Villain's range is AQ/AJ/A10 33-JJ. I call and hope to check/call it down.
I don't think I'd bet the flop though. I'd CR. If he puts me all in I fold. Otherwise, check/call it down.

Reg -

He's first to act - no opportunity for me to CR here (I don't think anyway). I bet the flop after he checked to me.

HC

Really sorry for not paying attention. I'd make your play and I have no idea what to suggest when the CR comes in. I'd probably give it the whole time bank and then call, fold any bet on the turn and post the hand!

LOL - I'll post what I did when/if I get some more feedback. Thanks for the reply.

I've given this some more thought...his read must be, if you've got a J, or two of them, you're unlikley to bet until the turn so he must put you on the ace. Now as far I see it, a push on your part is only going to push him off an ace (he might still call but you've got to be ahead in that case) so I think the play here is another reraise. This leaves you with 20k, which while not great is not the end of the world. If he then puts you all in you've got to give him credit for the J and he may well just put you in anyway whatever his holding but I think he could also fold here.

I'm getting a lot of flack on this site (probably rightly) for wanting to avoid unecessary pushes but again I can't see the value of a push in at this stage of the tournie. With the buy in and his chip stack, I would give him credit for being a good player who would:

1. Put you on an ace.
2. Re-raise.
3. Possibly fold a hand if he knew he couldn't catch up.

[eleventy]

How is just calling if you are staying in to the end. Why go all in and let him fold his worse A or his bluff? He is going to call only if he has the J. Call and let him bluff more chips to you.

[Rex Ruthless]

[ QUOTE ]
How is just calling if you are staying in to the end. Why go all in and let him fold his worse A or his bluff? He is going to call only if he has the J. Call and let him bluff more chips to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

ditto . . . from another St. Louisan - Go Cards!

[Art Vandelay]

[ QUOTE ]
How is just calling if you are staying in to the end. Why go all in and let him fold his worse A or his bluff? He is going to call only if he has the J. Call and let him bluff more chips to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

What he said.