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#11
12-03-2005, 01:10 PM
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Re: 84s in the SB.call call
To everyone who advocates folding preflop....
Although this blind structure kinda sucks for completing in the SB, we are still getting 5:1, plus good implied odds. With our suited 3 gapper, plus the opportunity to play in a hand with these awful players, I think you can do it if you play post flop good. 
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#12
12-03-2005, 01:10 PM
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Re: 84s in the SB.call call
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Why call the flop when you can bet it instead? [/ QUOTE ] Your folding equity is not all that high. Getting raised would suck. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. Betting into the field with that board is just asking for trouble. [/ QUOTE ] Trouble that would give us a better idea of where we're at here. But could have avoided the whole close thing by not paying 2/3 of a SB with these rubbish cards.
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#13
12-03-2005, 01:11 PM
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Re: 84s in the SB.call call
[ QUOTE ]
You think 48s is too loose? did i mention they were soooted? [/ QUOTE ] Oh, they were soooooted? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] Preflop, you're getting.... what - 5:1? 3 1/3 : 2/3, or something like that. You only have two others with you. You're not connected. I doubt it's +EV. You just end up in situations like this!
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#14
12-03-2005, 01:12 PM
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Re: 84s in the SB.call call
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Why call the flop when you can bet it instead? [/ QUOTE ] Your folding equity is not all that high. Getting raised would suck. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. Betting into the field with that board is just asking for trouble. [/ QUOTE ] Trouble that would give us a better idea of where we're at here. But could have avoided the whole close thing by not paying 2/3 of a SB with these rubbish cards. [/ QUOTE ] We already have decent information of where we are at just by check calling. We are most likely drawing when there is a bet here, and certainly drawing when so many people call. Betting and getting raised gives this same information with more certainty, but it is way too costly. Furthermore, if they just call our flop bet, we actually don't have any good information, and don't know where we stand. Yes, you can always avoid close situations by folding, but if we want to maximize our winrates, we must learn to loosen up in the blinds in slightly EV situations. If you can't handle the variance, folding is fine, but I do think this is EV+.
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#15
12-03-2005, 01:20 PM
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Re: 84s in the SB.call call
[ QUOTE ]
Trouble that would give us a better idea of where we're at here. But could have avoided the whole close thing by not paying 2/3 of a SB with these rubbish cards. [/ QUOTE ] We know where we are at once the flop hits. Behind. Thats why no bet. I dont really care to bet to "find out where I am at" because I already know. If I bet I am putting more money into a pot I am probably not going to win. I still have 2 8's and 3 4's to make a hand + runner runnner flush. If it comes back 2 bets I can easily fold. When it came back only 1 bet closing the action I had to consider my options. Preflop is close but I am calling most of the time here.
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#16
12-03-2005, 01:26 PM
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Re: 84s in the SB.call call
Interesting. I'm still don't think that it's +EV, but that doesn't mean I can't be convinced otherwise.
Chance of getting a Straight Flush on the flop: 0.01% Chance of getting 4-of-a-kind on the flop: 0.01% Chance of getting a Full House on the flop: 0.09% Chance of getting a Flush on the flop: 0.84% Chance of getting a Straight on the flop: 0.32% Chance of getting 3-of-a-kind on the flop: 1.57% Chance of getting 2 Pair on the flop: 3.03% Chance of getting a Four Flush on the flop: 10.94% Chance of getting 1 Pair on the flop: 28.96% The last two mean we'd have to keep drawing, so we'll weight them by how often the draws come in. The flush comes in ~35%, so (0.1094)(0.35) = 0.038 = 3.8%. The pair improves to trips or 2pr about 20% of the time, so (0.2896)(0.2) = 0.058 = 5.8% If we add those up, we get around 15.5%, or around 5.5:1 odds. Since many of those hands won't hold up even if we hit, and we'll have to fold the flop or turn sometimes, I think the implied odds we have for the hidden hand aren't enough. Again, I could be convinced. Am I missing anything important?
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#17
12-03-2005, 01:30 PM
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Re: 84s in the SB.call call
[ QUOTE ]
Interesting. I'm still don't think that it's +EV, but that doesn't mean I can't be convinced otherwise. Chance of getting a Straight Flush on the flop: 0.01% Chance of getting 4-of-a-kind on the flop: 0.01% Chance of getting a Full House on the flop: 0.09% Chance of getting a Flush on the flop: 0.84% Chance of getting a Straight on the flop: 0.32% Chance of getting 3-of-a-kind on the flop: 1.57% Chance of getting 2 Pair on the flop: 3.03% Chance of getting a Four Flush on the flop: 10.94% Chance of getting 1 Pair on the flop: 28.96% The last two mean we'd have to keep drawing, so we'll weight them by how often the draws come in. The flush comes in ~35%, so (0.1094)(0.35) = 0.038 = 3.8%. The pair improves to trips or 2pr about 20% of the time, so (0.2896)(0.2) = 0.058 = 5.8% If we add those up, we get around 15.5%, or around 5.5:1 odds. Since many of those hands won't hold up even if we hit, and we'll have to fold the flop or turn sometimes, I think the implied odds we have for the hidden hand aren't enough. Again, I could be convinced. Am I missing anything important? [/ QUOTE ] Where did you those stats?
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#19
12-03-2005, 01:35 PM
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Re: 84s in the SB.call call
[ QUOTE ]
If we add those up, we get around 15.5%, or around 5.5:1 odds. Since many of those hands won't hold up even if we hit, and we'll have to fold the flop or turn sometimes, I think the implied odds we have for the hidden hand aren't enough. Again, I could be convinced. Am I missing anything important? [/ QUOTE ] I think I play good. I can get more bets when I hit and lose less when I miss. I am convinced a hand like 64s or 79s would be an easy call. 84s is stretching a bit. What about 92s or T3s? Could/would you complete those in the SB here?
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