Interesting hand from the Bellagio 2k tournament

[LearnedfromTV]

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I think its a bad idea to put 1/4 of your stack in with a marginal hand with the idea of folding to subsequent action.

Here are my crude combat ready calculations:

There are 40 hands you are afraid of: (ak,aq,aa-jj) (12,12,18) probably less if you credit UTG for 1/2 an ace or so.

time 8 players left to act = 320 hands/1300 hands ~ 25% of the time you are called and dominated.

If you can fold out AQ then you are called and dominated only 30X8=240/1300 ~18% of the time.

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This is a little off. Multiplying 40 x # of players left will give you a decent estimate but it's on the high side.

But there are fewer hand than you said so that balances it back up a little. 1225 (50*49/2) possible hands from 50 remaining cards. The odds no one has one of the 40 dominating hands is

(1185/1225) ^ 8 = 76.7% ----> 23.3% that someone has you dominated.

Edit: Of course you can't do this one in your head at the table... I think the point is to realize that when you do a rough estimate your way you end up a little high... similar to the outs calculation where you multiply by 4 for your equity.

[locutus2002]

Thanks. The 1225 number is a glaring hole in my computations (~6%).

I'm still learning basic things. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[bogey]

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The guy who went all in had to have QQ+ , no way he has AK, if he has AK he would've just called.

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This makes no sense to me. I cant imagine AK just calling here. Anyways, 2nd call is mandatory given the 1st, but I would have either pushed or folded from the start.

[sdplayerb]

I muck to the first raise, as you said, too many people behind you. AQ i would reraise.

I think you are pretty well potcommitted here to the second raise.

[PuertoKid]

I think knowing relative stack sizes would help as would the general temperment of the table.

Against the hand range of a lone, desperate, short stack, I think your 1.5:1 pot odds are good.

But other factors are important. You are out of position and we don't know how the table is playing and what the relative stack sizes are.

Some questions I would ask myself here are 1) do the other players perceive me as an active player involved in a lot of pots 2) are there any big stacks behind me who are capable and willing to pull off a squeeze play 3) are there a couple people behind me who have shown a willingness to get involved in big pots pf when there are already multiple people involved?

If the answer to any of these questions is yes, I'm probably dumping the hand. I don't want to call off 20% of my stack and then have to play AJ out of position agasint an aggressive field, nor do I want to face a reraise from behind that I'll be obligate to call but further chews significantly into my stack (the situation you were faced with). If I think the table is fairly passive and I'm unlikely to see any other callers or a squeeze play, I probably make the call.

I think the 2nd call is required, but is also an example of the trouble you can get yourself into playing AJ oop in this situation.