ROULETTE & "VARIANCE"

[skipperbob]

I doubt that this will be quite the "revelation" to anybody else that it was to me, but consider this:

As I was "crying-in-my-Beer" about my 0 for 13 run yesterday and was almost P.O.'d enough to call 66's and complain (not quite) I realized that Zero out of 13 is actually fairly common in Roulette.....Back when I was devising "systems" to beat Roulette I thought regularly about the old Martingale system (and why in the hell it didn't work)....Well the reason that it doesn't "work" is that if you are betting red [20/18 against] you will encounter a losing streak, greater than 10 trials, at least once in every 200 trials....greater than 12 in 300 trials, etc.....Well, 20/18 against is the same as a 47.36% ITM.

Yikes!....I'm no 47.36% "ITM'er" [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]......So, I'm gonna hit alot of zero for 13's [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[raptor517]

i hate roulette. i hate blackjack. i hate pai-gow. holla

[SlackerMcFly]

Good point! Kind of puts things in perspective.

At the rate I play, that would be like finishing OOTM for a whole week! Hang in there Skipper, I feel a heater coming on....

happens to the best of us... glad you realized you can't beat roullette too.

[microbet]

I think the variance in Russian Roulette is even higher.

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
i hate roulette. i hate blackjack. i hate pai-gow. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

I love counting cards =]

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
happens to the best of us... glad you realized you can't beat roullette too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually Skipper CAN beat roulette. He just chooses not to.

Skip-
You know you can call me for a sympathetic ear any time you go on a losing streak, get shot down by a woman, or accidentally put Metamucil in your Cabernet.

[bearly]

i have it on good authority that skipper likes metamucil in his cabernet, and that he does a couple lines of it before a sng because it helps keep the head cleared out also.............h

[lacky]

actualy u only run good in russian roulette.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt that this will be quite the "revelation" to anybody else that it was to me, but consider this:

As I was "crying-in-my-Beer" about my 0 for 13 run yesterday and was almost P.O.'d enough to call 66's and complain (not quite) I realized that Zero out of 13 is actually fairly common in Roulette.....Back when I was devising "systems" to beat Roulette I thought regularly about the old Martingale system (and why in the hell it didn't work)....Well the reason that it doesn't "work" is that if you are betting red [20/18 against] you will encounter a losing streak, greater than 10 trials, at least once in every 200 trials....greater than 12 in 300 trials, etc.....Well, 20/18 against is the same as a 47.36% ITM.

Yikes!....I'm no 47.36% "ITM'er" [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]......So, I'm gonna hit alot of zero for 13's [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm no mathematician in any respect, but this don't seem near right. by my quick hack math calculations, TEN losses in a row is about a 1/1500 occurance.

13 in a row, won't happen much, unless you suck.

So, expect it alot.

P.S. So how much did you lose on these systems?
P.P.S Also, most roulette wheels are 18 red, 18 black, 2 green, making it 18/19, not 18/20. No wonder you lost $$$, you old coot.