TPTK scary board 50/100

[schwza]

this is a hand a fellow 2+2'er played. ub 100+9.

sorry, could not get bisonbison to work with ub.

apestyles is at seat 0 with 5090.
fidelcastro13 is at seat 1 with 5275.
liquidghost is at seat 2 with 3600.
Buffalo11 is at seat 3 with 1490.
button is at seat 4 with 4060.
pinksock is at seat 6 with 1785.
Dan9221 is at seat 7 with 3000.
Hero is at seat 8 with 9935.
oscar the cat is at seat 9 with 3870.
The button is at seat 4.

pinksock posts the small blind of 50.
Dan9221 posts the big blind of 100.

hero has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. 9 handed.

Pre-flop:

Hero raises to 250. 5 folds. button calls. 2 folds.

Flop (board: Jd Qs Tc) T650:

Hero bets 450. button calls.

Turn (board: Jd Qs Tc 2c) T1550:

Hero?

villain has 3360 left.

I bet 1000-1200 because I think only hands you're behind that just called the flop are AK and 89. I would think that two pairs and sets would've raised the flop. It's likely villain has OESD + middle pair/bottom pair or AJ/AT. I'm checking the river. If villain calls turn and has a single pair, he'll probably check river after you check. I think it's unlikely villain is drawing w/o a pair in his hand.

I don't like checking the turn, because villain will probably bet most hands, and you'll have to call a bet from villain in the 1000-1200 range. You might as well be the bettor. I probably ditch hand if he raises turn.

I think an interesting way to control this pot is to check this turn and call his continuation bet. If he checks behind you, he's either got a monster or scared pair. If he bets the turn, you flat call, which SHOULD produce one of the following two things on the river: you check, he checks OR you bet, he folds/calls/raises (if he raises, I think you know you're beat).

What could villian have from coldcalling on the button with two more people to act behind him? KT? Doubtful. AJ? Probably. AT? Probably if it was suited. AK? Maybe.

I think if it gets hairy here on the turn or river, I fold. I think my line is the best way to control the pot, but I could be wrong.

I suppose your line is better, because it gets villain to check down a lot more one pair hands on the river.

[PFrese]

bet the pot (1500) call his subsequent push. Expect to see KQ. Scoop...

Or he folds and you take it down.

[ QUOTE ]
bet the pot (1500) call his subsequent push. Expect to see KQ. Scoop...

Or he folds and you take it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

You and I have opposite lines, but I think neither of them is incorrect. It depends on what the OP wants to do. Does he want to take this cautiously and make the right decision himself, or play it aggressively and make the villian make the right decision.

[Rizen]

FYI - this is my hand. When I saw schwza post it I was hoping for a little more feedback, so I'm going to add a little to it as well as a bit of a shameless bump.

Does anyone see any value to utilizing a bit of pot control here? Hero has 100 BB and IMO is in a situation where he is liable to either win a small pot or lose a big one. With that big of a stack I would think you'd want to make some serious considerations to looking out for stack preservation and trying to keep this pot small, one way or another. This is one of those situations where I think the most likely scenarios if hero bets here are hero winning a small pot or losing a big one. Thoughts?

-Rizen

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
FYI - this is my hand. When I saw schwza post it I was hoping for a little more feedback, so I'm going to add a little to it as well as a bit of a shameless bump.

Does anyone see any value to utilizing a bit of pot control here? Hero has 100 BB and IMO is in a situation where he is liable to either win a small pot or lose a big one. With that big of a stack I would think you'd want to make some serious considerations to looking out for stack preservation and trying to keep this pot small, one way or another. This is one of those situations where I think the most likely scenarios if hero bets here are hero winning a small pot or losing a big one. Thoughts?

-Rizen

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know much about the $100 games at UB, so perhaps you could stack some clown with KQ. The bigger issue is WA/WB here.

Unless he's god's own moron, Villain could have:
-The nuts
-A set
-Two pair
-One pair and a draw (AQ, while unlikely, makes a certain amount of sense)

Obviously many of these are bad news. The good news is that given your PFR and flop aggression, unless he's on AK he is going to be as careful with this hand as you are.

I'd check here, and see what develops. If I can get to a showdown for cheap, I do. If he makes a respectable bet, I think I probably lay it down.

Sam

Because I'm nowhere near the caliber of player as you Rizen, I'm sure you could find fault in my line. I think the line I proposed above is a solid way to control the pot. Then again, mine is dependant on villian playing along.

[schwza]

this is not a wa/wb hand. KJ has 9 outs against hero on the flop, and hero has 9 against JT. villain pretty much always has some outs, and hero has 4 outs to the nuts against anything but KK and AK.