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#11
12-10-2005, 08:15 PM
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Re: how wrong am i here?
[ QUOTE ]
3/1. Meh, either way is not a big mistake. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] I really disagree, but it is hard for me to fully flesh out why. Not only do we almost have odds for set value alone (we may even have more than enough from set value alone), but we are good UI quite a bit. I really think that calling here is a sure thing. 
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#12
12-10-2005, 08:26 PM
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Re: how wrong am i here?
The problem with your disagreement is that you're giving way to much credit to winning UI. This will not often happen cheaply and sometimes you will be behind even when it seems very possible you are ahead. I favor Krishan's advice, and err on the side of tightness. 4-handed you can find better spots than this.
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#13
12-10-2005, 08:48 PM
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Re: how wrong am i here?
[ QUOTE ]
The problem with your disagreement is that you're giving way to much credit to winning UI. [/ QUOTE ] Nope. I think that we get make up almost all of our value from set value. I think we probably have a slight deficiency, but I think we way more than make up for this when we are given good flops UI.
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#14
12-10-2005, 08:51 PM
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Re: how wrong am i here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 3/1. Meh, either way is not a big mistake. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] I really disagree, but it is hard for me to fully flesh out why. Not only do we almost have odds for set value alone (we may even have more than enough from set value alone), but we are good UI quite a bit. I really think that calling here is a sure thing. [/ QUOTE ] You know he is the small blind? And he has to put 5 in? Krishan
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#15
12-10-2005, 08:57 PM
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Re: how wrong am i here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 3/1. Meh, either way is not a big mistake. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] I really disagree, but it is hard for me to fully flesh out why. Not only do we almost have odds for set value alone (we may even have more than enough from set value alone), but we are good UI quite a bit. I really think that calling here is a sure thing. [/ QUOTE ] You know he is the small blind? And he has to put 5 in? Krishan [/ QUOTE ] Yes. He is putting in 5 for what is likely to be either a $18 pot, or a $24 pot. Sometimes it gets raised by the BB, but I think that is pretty minimal. Lets average the potsize to say $20. For our set, we need the pot to be about $40. That means we need to make up $20, or a bit more than 3 BB. Hmm, I musta done the math wrong earlier. I still think we make at least 2 BB from implieds, meaning we only need 1 more BB profit on average when we don't hit our set. I think this is probably doable. I agree it is much closer than I earlier thought though.
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#16
12-10-2005, 09:01 PM
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Re: how wrong am i here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 3/1. Meh, either way is not a big mistake. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] I really disagree, but it is hard for me to fully flesh out why. Not only do we almost have odds for set value alone (we may even have more than enough from set value alone), but we are good UI quite a bit. I really think that calling here is a sure thing. [/ QUOTE ] You know he is the small blind? And he has to put 5 in? Krishan [/ QUOTE ] Yes. He is putting in 5 for what is likely to be either a $18 pot, or a $24 pot. Sometimes it gets raised by the BB, but I think that is pretty minimal. Lets average the potsize to say $20. For our set, we need the pot to be about $40. That means we need to make up $20, or a bit more than 3 BB. Hmm, I musta done the math wrong earlier. I still think we make at least 2 BB from implieds, meaning we only need 1 more BB profit on average when we don't hit our set. I think this is probably doable. I agree it is much closer than I earlier thought though. [/ QUOTE ] He is putting 5 into a 16 or 19 SB pot. Krishan
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#17
12-10-2005, 10:07 PM
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Re: how wrong am i here?
I'd feel better about calling if I knew how BB plays. W/o BB in the picture our implied odds on the flop make this a close call; but we're really hoping for the ideal situation to take place on the flop (CO bets, BTN calls, we check raise and they both call). Bob, are you confident that postflop will happen this way most of the time with these guys (i.e. is btn habitually peeling flops?). I dunno... just seems like our hopes for the ideal implied odds postflop are rather thin here w/o knowing CO very well and not knowing what BB is doing here at all (assuming he at least calls PF but I don't know.).
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#18
12-10-2005, 11:27 PM
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Re: how wrong am i here?
I 3bet this all the time. When he misses, I win.
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