The Bird Flu Pandemic

[4_2_it]

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SARS was a relatively new disease and simply did not acquire major transfection factors. The odds were in our favor.

Flu has a much better track record for pandemics. However, the odds for this year are still well in our favor. Remember, if it does not acquire good human-to-human transmissibility, you do not get a pandemic.

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I agree with you. I just think too many people are panicking when this thing has not mutated to human on human.

I think the scientific breakthroughs in medicine over the past 50 years along with increasing worldwide sanitation is something that is downplayed too often. These are two of the main reasons we have not a seen a pandemic similar to the Spanish flu of 90 years ago.

Wasn't swine flu supposed to kill millions in the mid-1970's? I think I even got vaccinated when I was 7 or 8. I just don't see a reason to get excited.

News has been slow lately so the press has to report something and this seems to be a story that will sell newspapers so they run with it.

[Matt Flynn]

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Then first question will be do you let those in vegetative states die in order to save healthy people, or do you sacrifice the healthy people and leave the vegetatives on the vents?

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Well this would be a clear violation of the Hippocratic Oath. As well as many other local laws. other than that, I have no input into the greater moral questions being asked. My first instinct is to say pulling dying people off respirators is wrong. I'm not a big 'the ends justify the means' kind of guy.

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I disagree. The Hippocratic Oath states first do no harm and is all nice comfy in conditions of abundant health care resources. In a flu pandemic, I feel battlefield medicine rules apply and triage is in order. Save as many lives as you can with what you have. There is moral debate that usually centers around doing vs not doing: e.g., the classic you are on a train that is going to run over disrupted tracks, derail and kill all 100 people aboard. You have the option to switch to a safe track, but a helpless child is tied to those tracks and would be killed by your action. What do you do?

[wacki]

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However, there will likely be enough Ambu bags and oxygen bottles.


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Ambu bags? How long would you have to use an Ambu bag on someone? A week 24/7? Also, I assume whoever is using the Ambu bag would be at high risk of contracting the disease.

[Aloysius]

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Please forgive my ignorance, but know very little about this (except that you have now scared the living [censored] out of me) -

1) Ventilator - very expensive? who produces them? how long to mass produce? ventilation does what now for an infected patient? Can not self ventilate due to being too sick?



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I believe ventilators cost several thosuand dollars, but it would depend on the model. There is no stockpile. Production capacity would not meet the demand. However, there will likely be enough Ambu bags and oxygen bottles.

Healthy people's immune systems can respond so vigorously to the flu virus that healthy adults can drown in their own fluids: essentially the lungs fill with reactive inflammation. Ventilation increases the oxygen being delivered into the blood stream by (1) using oxygen instead of air and (2) using pressure to force air into the lungs (vs suction, which is what you use when you breathe in). There's more to it, but other docs on the forum would give you better answers.

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Thank you - very helpful.

Ambu bag + oxygen bottle may = the new gas face mask i'm thinking...

[Matt Flynn]

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Matt,

Are you by chance a sales rep. for a ventilator company?

Swede

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lol no, but it's a good industry right now.

[4_2_it]

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Matt,

Are you by chance a sales rep. for a ventilator company?

Swede

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lol no, but it's a good industry right now.

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Especially since the run on duct tape seems to be losing its steam.

[Matt Flynn]

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Best current article on the real risk of bird flu.

Fuss and Feathers: Pandemic Panic over the Avian Flu

Summary. Yes, we should be worried and prepare. Anything with this much potential for death has to be paid attention to. But it proably won't happen this year. It may not happen for 30 years. Be alert, but keep perspective.

When in doubt, consult Michael Fumento for a rational evaluation of all things scientific.

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Fumento and I have said nothing different. Neither of us have assigned a probability the event will happen this year, save to agree it is >0.

[Matt Flynn]

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For instance, a significant number of dogs have tested positive for Trypanosoma cruzi from Georgia to Minnesota. There is no shortage of mosquitos in the US. Why the leap from dogs to humans is not made in the US but happens to occur in Mexico and South America never ceases to amaze me.

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I did not know that. Do you have a link?

My favorite is prarie dogs in California are rampant with the Black Death.

[banditbdl]

So if I'm a 2nd year medical student who will be starting rotations next year with a history of empeyema requiring a thoracotomy does this mean I should be worried?

I am so [censored].

[MrWookie47]

This was originally posted by JaxUp over in Micro. It was from a newspaper running a story on Bird Flu.