The Bird Flu Pandemic

[MrMon]

Best current article on the real risk of bird flu.

Fuss and Feathers: Pandemic Panic over the Avian Flu

Summary. Yes, we should be worried and prepare. Anything with this much potential for death has to be paid attention to. But it proably won't happen this year. It may not happen for 30 years. Be alert, but keep perspective.

When in doubt, consult Michael Fumento for a rational evaluation of all things scientific.

[swede123]

Matt,

Are you by chance a sales rep. for a ventilator company?

Swede

[CORed]

It's very hard to predict. The 1918 "Spanish" flu pandemic was an extremly virulent strain, and sometimes killed helthy young men in a matter of hours. the 1968 Hong Kong flu wasn't much worse than your typical seasonal flu, but a lot more people caught it because nobody had immunity. It would make sense to be prepared for a "worst case" scenario, but i don't really see any reason to panic.

[wacki]

There are so many dormant viruses, bacteria, and parasites in the US that are lethal to humans it amazes me we don't have more plagues. Especially considering how prevelant mosquitos are.

For instance, a significant number of dogs have tested positive for Trypanosoma cruzi from Georgia to Minnesota. There is no shortage of mosquitos in the US. Why the leap from dogs to humans is not made in the US but happens to occur in Mexico and South America never ceases to amaze me.

[miajag81]

If that scenario really happened, the effects of the ensuing panic would be a lot worse than the effects of 2% of the population dying.

[Matt Flynn]

Long article in a Pediatric journal about flu preparedness in North Carolina. Also, my wife sits on the Pediatrics committee that advocates for preparing for these things in NC.

[sfer]

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If that scenario really happened, the effects of the ensuing panic would be a lot worse than the effects of 2% of the population dying.

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A lot worse than the deaths of 5 million people in the US?

[Shajen]

[ QUOTE ]
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If that scenario really happened, the effects of the ensuing panic would be a lot worse than the effects of 2% of the population dying.

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A lot worse than the deaths of 5 million people in the US?

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absolutely.

[benza13]

Yea, these stats are all scary, but the real reason we have heard so much about bird flu: the [censored] 24 hour news channels that need to fill up space, so they find "potential" threats like this and pump them up as much as they can. No one is going to call them on it either if they are wrong or wildly inaccurate, they'll just keep watching and worrying.

Bird flu might be a problem someday, but I have no worries for this or the next couple years. Hopefully by the time it actually is a threat they have a better plan than whats in place now.

[Matt Flynn]

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Please forgive my ignorance, but know very little about this (except that you have now scared the living [censored] out of me) -

1) Ventilator - very expensive? who produces them? how long to mass produce? ventilation does what now for an infected patient? Can not self ventilate due to being too sick?

2) SARs vs. Bird Flu - What is the current level of human-to-human infection? Is there research to suggest that this is becoming more virulent and possible?

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I believe ventilators cost several thosuand dollars, but it would depend on the model. There is no stockpile. Production capacity would not meet the demand. However, there will likely be enough Ambu bags and oxygen bottles.

Healthy people's immune systems can respond so vigorously to the flu virus that healthy adults can drown in their own fluids: essentially the lungs fill with reactive inflammation. Ventilation increases the oxygen being delivered into the blood stream by (1) using oxygen instead of air and (2) using pressure to force air into the lungs (vs suction, which is what you use when you breathe in). There's more to it, but other docs on the forum would give you better answers.