Brief thought on big hands on draw-heavy boards

[RED FACE]

ok, just ran some more numbers at cardplayer and see that the pfr is always a fold here if he knows he's against a set so pushing is only good against a (semi)bluff or single pair or 2 pair.

Also, just calling is always wrong against a set imo even if it's to the str8 flush and even if he has 3 bluff cards in the non-heart A's if set will always fold to an A, K, or 8 on turn. It's a bit close though, assuming he has to call 1100 to win 1700(the hand details were not layed out as this was not the focus of the op).

[Matt Flynn]

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I have a couple more questions:
If pfr makes a mistake and just calls and
1) turn comes non heart A, K, or 8 and pfr pushes does set always fold, sometimes fold, never fold?
2) turn pairs board and pfr checks does set(now boat) also check(to give a chance for pfr to make a flush) giving pfr a free draw to 2 outs to str8 flush?

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1. Set never folds getting around 3.2:1 b/c even if PFR has the straight it's a 3.4:1 draw.

2. I/set/boat would typically not check as betting usually gets the short remaining money in anyways. Less chance of commitment failure imo, but that is just imo.

[AZK]

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unless you are also 3betting 22/67s/AQs and such, you will get pegged when playing deep and predictable.

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aren't you doing this too? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Matt Flynn]

The hand can be played either way. For reasons specific to this night, I was playing as if on short money.

[RED FACE]

Thanks for your help Matt. I know the point of your post was playing from the set perspective - one can't just assume he's against a str8 flush draw.

But from the str8 flush draw perspective if set wont fold to potential str8 on turn he wont fold to potentail flush either, right? Doesn't this mean that the draw should always call and never fold and never push?

If the draw is actually against pocket A's or K's instead of a set then I think it's better to push for fold value while draw is in a slight lead.

At this point, maybe the draw figures he's up against,
a set 47% of the time
over pair, tptk 47% of the time (fold value for pushing)
a semibluff 6% of the time (fold value here too maybe).
If this is even approximately accurate do we come back to the draw pushing every time?

thanks

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I am with you 100%. If I read one more post where someone (read: Strasser) personifies "Shania" and talks about some stupid [censored] like "pleasuring her" when referring to meta-game considerations, I think I'm going to flip out.
ML4L

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Well I'm glad it isn't just me.