Unavoidable bubble burst?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

Durron, folding the first hand is horrible. You dont need fold equity when you have a hand like Q6s headsup. You really need to work harder on learning the true value of hands when headsup, because if you want to fold that you have basically no concept of the value of Q6s.

[/ QUOTE ]

My reason for wanting to fold has very little to do with the value of my hand and a lot more to do with stack size considerations.

Perhaps I am overthinking stack size considerations? Sometimes I get into bouts of FPS.

[45suited]

Yeah, the 2nd one is just stupid. I would NEVER make that push in a vacuum...

Like I said to Curtains, I rarely get on tilt, at least not the pissed off variety. I think that I just rationalized the 2nd push to myself in the heat of battle. Seriously, if the chip / blind situation was exactly the same in another game, I would never push there. No other word for it than tilt, I guess.

Not common for me but I will use it as a learning experience. (More rationalizing [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])

[benza13]

I looked at this thread earlier today and was surprised to see people saying fold the first hand, I just didn't understand it, but I didn't have time to come up with a good response. I am glad to see that other posters, especially someone like curtains, agreed with that.

I think the second hand is borderline at best and I don't think I can push it in this situation. Had I not just shown down the same hand (relatively weak despite being +cEV) and lost, it might be a push, but in this situation it is a clear fold, to me at least. I would push this hand on the button with the same chip stack in other situations, but not here because your opponents are going to have wide enough ranges to make this a really bad push.

[bjb23]

[ QUOTE ]

45suited, learn the K+S charts and then youll have no reason to doubt yourself in this situation, and youll realize how absurdly not close it is.



[/ QUOTE ]

k+s= krieger and sklansky?? where would i find this? this isnt the same as the starting hand rankings in HEPFAP i would imagine.

that aside, are you saying that he should only push the top x% of hands here or is it an "any two" situation?

excellent discussion

-bj-

[Nottom]

Karlson-Sklansky

They are rankings of the HU strength of hands based on stack size and have nothing to do with David's limit hand rankings.

Its a push top X spot. Where X is somewhere in the 65% range.

[mmbt0ne]

I have no idea how to read that chart. Any help?

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea how to read that chart. Any help?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL nOOb. The number on the right is the max number of small blinds that you can have as the small blind to make pushing +EV against the BB (or the number of small blinds that he can have, whatever is less).

So for example...

1st hand of WSOP. It folds to you in the SB. Phil Ivey is to your left and you [censored] your pants. You have 25 chips in the SB and you look down at AKs on a 10k stack (399x the SB after you take away the 1 SB you have out there). Pushing all-in is +EV compared to folding in this spot.

Brad

Damn is everyone bailing out of limit HE now?

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea how to read that chart. Any help?

[/ QUOTE ]

The only columns that matter are the first and last.

The last column being the maximum stack in a $1/$2 blind game you could push from the SB and it be +EV if your opponent had you covered (or his stack if you have him covered), knew what you had, and played perfectly. So for SNG use, divide this number by 2 for the number of BBs in your stack.

The 3 middle columns represent how many hands call, how many hands fold, and how often you win when called. As I said before these are unimportant and are just there to show how it was calculated.

For example, take this row:
QJs 418 807 0.432774 49.515440

This indicates that if you have a $49 stack in a $1/$2 game it is +EV to open push QJs from the SB even if you flip over your hand as you do so. Or in SNG terms that if you have less than 25BBs it is alway +chipEV to open push with QJs from the SB regardless of the BBs calling range.

[curtains]

Unfortunately the previous posters explanation wasnt perfect, as the most important aspect of the chart is that you are assuming your opponent knows your exact hole cards.

The chart assumes you are playing a game with blinds of 1 and 2. You are in the SB and have only two options, either to move allin or to fold. The number in the right most column is the number where you are +EV to move allin with the given hand, assuming you have that many chips or less AND assuming your opponent knows your cards. This means that if your opponent calls with every single hand that beats you, its still +EV to move allin with these hands as long as you have less chips than the right hand column.


What this basically does is prove beyond a doubt that it's terrible to fold certain hands headsup with certain stack sizes, because even if your opponent knew what you had, your push would still be +ev.

[Nottom]

If you want to check some of them open SNGPT and set it to 2 players (so that chip EV and $EV are equal).

Now using my QJs example:

Set the blinds to 50/100 and stacks to 2500
Set the BBs call range to 33+, A2+, K2+, QJ+
Run it for QJs.

Should be basically EV neutral.

You can change it to QJo and now its a losing play, as the SK rankings show QJo is only profitable upto 17BBs. This again can be verified with SNG:PTs.

Note: the stack sizes given in the chart are your stack after posting the $1 SB

You can play with the calling range for the BB and will see that if the BB calls with any other range your EV can only go up.