Unavoidable bubble burst?

[kamrann]

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I know you didnt look at ICM but another poster said he did. Assuming he is correct that ICM says to push... what i quoted above is exactly what ICM takes into consideration...


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You are absolutely right, so it's hard to argue. All I can say is that ICM is just a model, it's not perfect. My intuition strongly tells me to fold here. The short stack will obviously go up against one of the three others soon, and my feeling is that you would much rather it was one of the other two than yourself, unless you hold a strong hand. I think when it happens and the big stack is not a good favourite, a lot of equity is being transferred from him to the other two big stacks. So I think I'd rather pass up this even if ICM says it's +$EV, in the hope that one of the other two stacks will go up against him instead.

I know it's sometimes difficult to argue when ICM says something is right, but the bottom line is it's only an approximation, and I'll always go with my instinct when it is strong, regardless of what ICM says. This is such a case.

[durron597]

I fold the first and push the second.

The idea is that it's generally a bad idea to steal from the really small stacks (unless there's more than one of them) or the really big stacks (unless you are also a really big stack and there is a really small stack). In the second case, Q6s is not a hand I want to go to showdown with against a BB who has a huge incentive to call.

[Shillx]

The 1st hand is a standard push. Playing perfectly in the SB against the BB is such an easy thing to do since pushing/folding is only dictated by the size of your stack and your hand. With Q6s in this spot...you have to make money, no matter what his calling strategy is. Folding here (just because you ran into KK) is really bad since it is at least a +.5% $EV push. Even if he decides to just call with pair/Ax/Kx/Q7+ you are still correct to push.


The 2nd push is much worse IMO. It would be fine to push a big stack against some shorter stacks in this spot, but not here. It is like 0 EV to push even if you will only get called by A9+ and 66+. Against a large range (that includes KQo) you need to pick a better spot and fold here. You aren't in desperation mode just yet with the SB having just a few hundred more and you having like 9BB.

Brad

[45suited]

Wow, I see the responses are very mixed. This probably means that both decisions are fairly close (?). I have concluded that even though ICM might say that the first push is good, it was probably bad, for the reasons that

1) I still would have been over 2:1 chip lead over SB if I folded combined with

2) I did not have enough to gain by simply winning the blinds and

3) SB had too much incentive to call (based upon chipstacks, not his hand being KK) and

4) SB had enough of a stack left that he could hurt me

His stack (relative to mine and the blinds) was just in that grey area where all these factors lead me to think that my Q6s should have been a fold.

I don't think that this gets discussed alot, but this might be a spot where ICM should be ignored. (I'm trying to not be results oriented, that's precisely why I made this original post, to see what everyone thought about what I thought at the table was a very close decision.)

[Nottom]

First hand is automatic, I don't like the second push. It might be fine in a vacuum, but after just pushing a weak hand, showing it down, and losing your chances of getting called are much higher than normal.

Edit: After reading some other response, I just want to point out that folding in the first hand is absolutely awful. Give the guy whatever calling range you want and it is always an easy easy push.

[45suited]

That's precisely what I didn't like about the 2nd push (looked tilty even though it wasn't) but I thought that I had alot of FE left so that someone couldn't just throw a loose call out there.

But you are correct, that was precisely my thinking at the table - "man, it sucks that I just pushed the last hand and showed down a weak hand".

[Nottom]

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That's precisely what I didn't like about the 2nd push (looked tilty even though it wasn't) but I thought that I had alot of FE left so that someone couldn't just throw a loose call out there.

But you are correct, that was precisely my thinking at the table - "man, it sucks that I just pushed the last hand and showed down a weak hand".

[/ QUOTE ]

Even without the previous hand, Q6s is a very borderline push at best from the button. The blinds have to be pretty tight to make it a good play and with the shortstack in the blind or you as a shortstack, that just isn't going to be the case very often.

[Nottom]

I'm really shocked at a lot of the responses in this thread.

[curtains]

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I felt kind of sick after bubbling out here. Up to this point, I hadn't been pushing much really. Does anybody avoid getting busted here? Two consecutive hands on PP22.

Blinds 75-150

Hand 1
UTG (2400) folds
Button (2615) folds
SB (Hero) (2095) dealt Qc6c pushes all in
BB (665) calls 665 (KhKd)

BB doubles up to 1630

Hand 2
UTG (2615) folds
Button (Hero) (1355) dealt Qc6c (again) raises all-in
SB (1555) calls 1280
BB (2250) folds

SB had KhQs, won the hand. I bubble out. Now, I really didn't want to push the very next hand (because it looks so tilty and will more likely be called) but I didn't think I had a choice here on the button with Q6s, good FE, and less than 10BB. Does anybody play these two hands differently? Disregarding on the 1st hand that he had a monster, I know that the BB is quite possibly more likely to gamble, but I can't see folding Q6s (an above average hand) because of this.

I THINK that I did what I had to do both times, but I'd be interested in hearing other opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]



Hand 2 is a pretty clear fold IMO.

[curtains]

ICM says his play was correct when he got called by KQo???