non-sticky casino bonus question

[cassette]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can't accuratley determine EV until you are finished playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh boy, do you have to hit the books...

EV = Expected Value

expected
adj 1: considered likely or probable to happen or arrive

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm maybe going out on a bit of a limb here, but I would like to argue that in the long run EV is actually so close to EXPECTED VALUE that for all intents and purposes, it is VALUE.

Let's try to summarize a serious bonus hunter's career:

Over a few years something like this might be reasonable:
500 casinos with an average bonus of 100/100/3000

So: EV = 500*100 - (1 500 000 *.0040) = $44 000

This assumes that you never bust a bonus. When you do bust a bonus you are effectively reducing the WR, which reduces the HA.

Let's say you bust half of your bonuses half way through the WR:

So: EV = [250*100 – (750 000 * .0040) ] + [250*100 – ( 375 000 * .0040)] = 22 000 + 23 050 = $45 050

Regardless of bet size, if you do not bust bonuses you will have less money at the end of the day because you are paying more “rake” in the form of HA. Is this flawed thinking?