A Hand Against Roy Cooke

[skp]

See my earlier post. I raised the same point although I do say that betting JJ might be worthwhile if the other guy can fold KK/QQ because of the ace on board.

But this principle (of checking JJ) can be carried over to other spots where it's unlikely that your opponent has a better hand which he will fold. For example, let's say that you raised in late position with JJ and are now headsup with someone in early position. The flop comes A22 rainbow and he checkcalls. In this spot, the rationale for checking KK on the turn applies equally (or nearly equally) to JJ as no rational player would havre called the flop bet with a King or a Queen unless it was AK or AQ. When he calls, his most likely hands are a pocket pair, a weak ace or a deuce. So, you should check JJ (but probably bet 55).

[Kevin J]

I'm really glad that both you and Dynasty brought up this point. I haven't been running too well over the last couple of sessions. I fear my thinking has become limited and I'm neglecting to look at ALL sides of a hand. I've fallen into a defensive rut and considered only the danger of free cards with JJ. The fact is, when a pot goes to 3 bets and starts getting large there are other considerations such as getting a worse hand to fold. At the very least, it shouldn't be overlooked.

I recently had a hand where I raised with JJ and was 3-bet by a tight solid player. The flop came A-high and I check/raised. She called. I led again on the turn and she showed me QQ and mucked. Maybe a bad play on my part. But I haven't been thinking enough about this situation WITH position... Thanks skp.

[Dynasty]

but a turn check-raise might win the pot right away.

You shouldn't want to win the pot immediately if your opponent (1) has and underpair and (2) he'll put one bet into the pot on the river. That pot is much too small to be chasing somebody out who's drawing to a 2-outer and will put more money into the pot on a later street.

I think a lot of players are misjudging this situation because Roy is holding the might KK. I think the analysis would be much different if Roy held 22. However, the situation would be the same. You'd still have him drawing to just two outs. Would you want to "win the pot right away" if your opponent held 22?

[mike l.]

right on dynasty. i almost cringe to see you posting this well-thought out info though. i dont want all the other mid limit players who would show aggression against an obviously willing bettor w/ a huge dog who knows how to fold to learn how to play this hand well.

i posted a 15-30 AQ hand a few months back where i 3 bet in the bb against an aggressive semi-solid 40-80 regular and she 4 bet preflop. the board by the river was ATx-x-x and my play was check-call, check-call, bet. she called and my hand was good. the vast majority of posters hated the way i played it. i like that.

as for cooke's value bet on the turn i hate it. there are enough players who would get scared w/ AQ and AJ or try to rope-a-dope. at 30-60 there are less players who would call w/ a smaller pair against a turn raise given the preflop action and the A on board. take the free card and call a river bet, or bet the river if checked to again.

betting the turn and then checking behind on the river is completely wrong here because you miss seeing the showdown when you are checkraised. at 30-60 fear of being run off the best hand is reasonable. check-call and then check-raise is a great way to run a steal against KK w/ that A on board if youre caught holding something like 88 against a player willing to fold a strong hand against some turn aggression.

[Manzanita]

Kevin,

If Roy has an Ace (which is a reasonable assumption given that he 3-bet an UTG raiser) then it is unlikely that the Chicago player is ahead. Of course, Roy could also have 3-bet with KK, QQ, and possibly lesser pocket pairs. If you look at the distribution of possible hands then the Chicago player appears to be a slight favorite. That is why I think he should play the flop aggressively. If analysis suggested that the Chicago player was a bigger favorite then check-calling the flop and going for a raise on the turn is a better play. I hope that this reasoning makes sense (which is not to say that it is necessarily correct).

-- Manzanita

[mikelow]

You convinced me! Once again, I let results color my thinking. One more point, is Roy Cooke overrated?

Can we post this on UPF?

[brad]

gee this play is right out of HFAP so i dont see why mid limit players arent familiar with it.

[Clarkmeister]

Two thoughts:

1. "So he is only a 2-1 favorite" - There aren't a lot of situations in holdem where you are such a substantial favorite are there? 2-1 seems monstrous to me. I'm surprised you use the word 'only'.

2. I haven't ever played with Roy, but based on his writings and attitudes about 'unknown' and 'tourist' type players, I suspect his range of 3-betting hands is considerably larger than AA-JJ and AK against this opponent. I would be very surprised if he doesn't go down to 88 and AQ in these spots, particularly if the blinds are tight at all. I suspect that your possible range of hands Roy could be holding here is too narrow and the Chicago player is substantially higher than a 2-1 favorite here.

[deadbart]

Wait a minute. The reason that you should bet KK is that it "is good here most of the time", because most players "want to check-raise either the flop or turn"??? (emphasis mine)

You should check KK because there are very hands that won't either fold or checkraise on the turn. Then on the river, you call if they bet or bet if they check. You get a bet from hands like smaller pocker pairs that would fold on the turn, because they bet into you or get suspicious and call. Yes you give them chances to hit 2 outers. Oh well. Meanwhile, you lose the same amount to an ace, with a free chance to hit a set on the river.

Of course this all depends on the player; some guys will call you the whole way with an underpair, or always show aggression on the flop if they have an ace. But I don't find your argument that you should bet KK on the turn because people will checkraise the flop or turn very convincing.

[Mason Malmuth]

Dynasty, as usual, has got it.

MM