HU against a "PT'er"

[Catt]

Guys - you should normally not be using "odds to the see the river" when deciding whether or not to see the turn.

If you're going to use the odds you need to see the river (instead of just seeing the next card) then you need to account for the bets that will go in on the turn. There are 7.5 small bets in the pot on the flop; Hero will be forced to call 1 SB on the flop and almost certainly 2 SBs on the turn (and Villain will contribute 3 SBs on these streets), meaning he's effectively getting 10.5:1.5 or ~7:1. However, since a good portion of his outs consist of backdoor draws, and he will not likely continue on the turn unless one of his "continuation outs" falls, this offers and even stronger argument to disregard the "see the river odds."

You'll be much better off in the vast majority of circumstances if you just look at the odds immediately offered when deciding whether or not to peel off a card (and considering implied odds as you grow more experienced). As you grow even more comfortable and experienced, you can start projecting beyond one street; until then, do yourselves a favor and stick to a street-by-street analysis.

[Rex Ruthless]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, I hate to agree with the table-coachy dude, but the flop call is incorrect in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

What kind of flop would you want here to continue in the hand? Top pair? Two pair? A str8 draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mind the flop to continue, but I don't think the pot is large enough to risk it. If there were about 3 people calling the flop, instead of just heads up, I think you have the odds to peel one off. I give him 4 outs total on the flop (0.5 outs for each K, Q - discounting because they may not be good enough on their own), 0.5 out for the 1 gap backdoor str8, and 0.5 out for the backdoor flush (you could lose to a higher flush). 4 outs is 10.8 to 1 against improving on the turn, but you still might need to improve again on the river. I figure he's getting 7.5 to 1 on the flop call ($15 preflop + $2 from the villian on the flop). The turn call is a no brainer once you get there, and nice check-raise on the river to get max value.

[silkyslim]

so basically i understand that the flop call is bad and most every other opponent i would fold.

[ QUOTE ]
Guys - you should normally not be using "odds to the see the river" when deciding whether or not to see the turn.

If you're going to use the odds you need to see the river (instead of just seeing the next card) then you need to account for the bets that will go in on the turn. There are 7.5 small bets in the pot on the flop; Hero will be forced to call 1 SB on the flop and almost certainly 2 SBs on the turn (and Villain will contribute 3 SBs on these streets), meaning he's effectively getting 10.5:1.5 or ~7:1. However, since a good portion of his outs consist of backdoor draws, and he will not likely continue on the turn unless one of his "continuation outs" falls, this offers and even stronger argument to disregard the "see the river odds."

You'll be much better off in the vast majority of circumstances if you just look at the odds immediately offered when deciding whether or not to peel off a card (and considering implied odds as you grow more experienced). As you grow even more comfortable and experienced, you can start projecting beyond one street; until then, do yourselves a favor and stick to a street-by-street analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this explanation helps me the best. I was evaluating pot odds incorrectly by looking at the "turn" portion of a pot odds chart to justify the call with this small number of outs in this hand. So, basically, I'm better off just looing at the "river" portion of a pot odds chart to make a correct judgement. Luckily, I had only made this mistake a few times during actual play.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
so basically i understand that the flop call is bad and most every other opponent i would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this guy is tight you should fold against him too. Best case scenario you're facing RIE with him holding JJ. Worst case scenario you're drawing nearly dead.

Implied tilt odds aren't worth the call.

Rob

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so basically i understand that the flop call is bad and most every other opponent i would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this guy is tight you should fold against him too. Best case scenario you're facing RIE with him holding JJ. Worst case scenario you're drawing nearly dead.

Implied tilt odds aren't worth the call.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
he had AJo and my play was correct on every street! ok yeah i know big time fold on the flop im a lucksack.

[ QUOTE ]
Guys - you should normally not be using "odds to the see the river" when deciding whether or not to see the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha YES! This is essentially what I was saying. Execpt, it is phrased in a much shorter and clearer way. I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Catt =)

[Stealthy]

A bit worrying that a TAG thinks he has such good control over you that he wants to isolate you with AJ off! I think I might have been inclined to put a few moves on him myself to keep him in check.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
A bit worrying that a TAG thinks he has such good control over you that he wants to isolate you with AJ off! I think I might have been inclined to put a few moves on him myself to keep him in check.

[/ QUOTE ]
well he said he "thought i was a PT'er" and "i knew his vitals"

I've read through this one and I have to say I believe it's one of those nearly flip a coin situations. BUT -- Given your "he's trying to isolate me" read -- the flop would be a peel for me. The reason I'm peeling one here is not that I have the odds (is everyone going to do the "hm, half and out for this, let's discount that, oh, reverse implied there...." in the time it takes to make a decision?). It's close. Smallish, HU pot makes for a fold with overs in most cases. Somewhere in TOP or HPFAP the point is made, however, that you can't always fold overs to aggression. You gotta peel even without the odds (I think it's in the loose calls part, where you might call with a beat mid-pair getting 10/12-1 or so in the right pot as well). There's just too much chance of being run over by your opposition on other hands if you do. Metagame, I guess, though I normally ovoid any metagame stuff for online SS games for the usual reasons. But when I've got overs without the A (again, HPFAP, too much reverse dominated probability), a back door flush, back door straight... I'm going to see another card.

This is small stakes. One advantage we have here is that it’s easier for us to see more streets than higher play (Not because it’s cheaper). When the balance is teetering on fold, go ahead and call on occasion.

I might get slammed for this, but I think we’re over-analyzing the “outs” on this one.