Stars $10+1 Freezeout, Berate Me or Help Me

#1 12-03-2005, 06:06 AM

First things first, PS $10+1. I'm in it to score big, not to spend 3+hours to profit only 9 dollars. I know my raise preflop for the steal was probably wrong (still, I hadn't played in over 2 orbits). So, let's skip the "fold preflop" stuff, as I know that already.

I figured I was ahead here 30% of the time, could hit my outs around 25% of the time, and he would fold around 35% of the time. He took forever to decide his actions (not a big tell or anything, usually), so I put him on a marginal hand like TP decent kicker or middle pair. Again, I want to FT this thing. Around 140 left, top 54 get paid, but I start caring at about 9th.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t700)
UTG+1 (t9902)
MP1 (t3080)
Hero (t6426)
MP3 (t2047)
CO (t10679)
Button (t460)
SB (t5185)
BB (t5840)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to t600, 1 fold, CO calls t600, 3 folds.

Flop: (t1400) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t850, CO calls t850.

Turn: (t3100) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t4951 (All-In), CO calls t4951.

River: (t13002) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t13002

Exitonly · #2 12-03-2005, 07:16 AM

you think you're ahead 30% of the time, but if you're ahead now, theres no way he's calling your push. so

30% of the time you win a 3100 pot outright: 930
70% of the time you're really behind and lose 4951.. lets say you lose 75% of the time and i think i'm being generous to you: -3445

for like -2500 chips on average.. which is a lot.

Now i didnt count that you'll occasionaly get a better hand to fold, but i dont think that happens often.

edit: i'd think you're probably ahead here more than 30%, considerably more, but just thought i'd show you that according to your line of thought, this is massively bad. In reality it's probably only 'pretty' bad, instead of 'massively'

#3 12-03-2005, 02:44 PM

Haha, thanks for the breakdown. It was definitely -EV, and not as close as I thought. I was trying to represent an 8 for the straight, but a push seems fishy to a good player. He showed ATh for TPTK, which was a good read on his part. That means I only had a 20% to hit a miracle card.

SO, knowing that, I'm pretty disappointed. I was not in need of making a bold move as I was around 50th with 140 to go. This is probably my biggest leak. Not thinking every single move out. This was one of those times where I just pushed, THEN analyzed it. Oh well. More to learn.

betgo · #4 12-03-2005, 03:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you think you're ahead 30% of the time, but if you're ahead now, theres no way he's calling your push. so

30% of the time you win a 3100 pot outright: 930
70% of the time you're really behind and lose 4951.. lets say you lose 75% of the time and i think i'm being generous to you: -3445

for like -2500 chips on average.. which is a lot.

Now i didnt count that you'll occasionaly get a better hand to fold, but i dont think that happens often.

edit: i'd think you're probably ahead here more than 30%, considerably more, but just thought i'd show you that according to your line of thought, this is massively bad. In reality it's probably only 'pretty' bad, instead of 'massively'

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math is off. You say he loses 75% of the time he is behind and called. You calculate the total expected loss based on no gain the 25% he wins. You have to consider the 3500 already in the pot. Plus you assume the best hand always calls. I think it frequently folds to a push.

Let's take your asumption that he gets called 70% of the time and picks up the pot 30%.

If he picks up the pot, he gains 3500 compared to check/folding. So +1050.

Following your assumption that he wins 25% of the time he is called. 13400 in the pot. 25% of that is 4350, so a 600 loss from 4950. 70% of 600 is -420.

So by your assumptions, the push is +630 compared to check/folding.

It seems to me that making a semibluff push is a good play once you are in this deep. I think check/folding is weak tight and hero's play is superior.

Proofrock · #5 12-03-2005, 03:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was trying to represent an 8 for the straight, but a push seems fishy to a good player.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're going to have a hard time representing an 8 here period -- you raised preflop after having sat out for two orbits and led the flop (so your hand range with an 8 in it is roughly 88). If you actually had the 8, I think you would probably check-raise all-in, knowing that Villain will be committed to call you and figure you don't have the 8 (so *really* representing the 8 here will probably just get you called [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ).

Exitonly · #6 12-03-2005, 08:35 PM

where aer you getting your numbers? the pot is 3100, he picks up 3100 30% of the time, which i accounted for. It's +930

and yea, i said that i didnt count the times that he gets a better hand to fold, but i doubt that happens that often.

and yea you're right that i didnt count the times he wins.. whoops. so it's (80051*.25 - 4951*.75) * .7 = -1002

so you win 930, lose 1002, so it's like -70 chips on average. Way off from the 2500 i did first time, whoooooops.

Still -cEV though. But a lot closer, and i withdraw any 'massively bad' comments i may have made. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]