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#31
10-24-2005, 06:07 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
[ QUOTE ]
Why don't you quote something from party that's leading you to your conclusion? Just because other casinos have done it this way, doesn't mean party will. [/ QUOTE ] Posted 10/10/05 by the Party rep on casinoaffiliateprograms.com: [ QUOTE ] PartyPoker.com are pleased to annouce that Blackjack play is now available Affiliates referred players can now play Poker and Blackjack at the same time, using the same account and one common purse. Commission based affilaite partners will receive 20% of Blackjack net revenue* for referred players’ Blackjack activity on all MGR trackers. Starting mid-October 2005, PartyPoker.com affiliate partners will be able to see the Blackjack net revenue from referred players against each tracker in a dedicated Blackjack column in the stats. The column will show stats from from the date of the Blackjack release, alongside Oct. 2005 Poker revenue calculations, taking into account revenues for the whole month. We are currently testing the user acceptance and profitability of this feature, and we expect to release further changes within the next few months both for affiliates and players. Please send an email with any feedback to your Affiliate Relationship Manager or to partypartners@partygaming.com *Blackjack net revenue is calculated as : Blackjack wagering by players Less Blackjack wins by player = Blackjack net revenue $$$ Affiliates final payable will be: Revenue from poker CPA deals plus Revenue from poker MGR deals plus Revenue from Blackjack plus Media search revenues plus Sub-affiliate revenues = Final payable $$$ Affiliates with sub-affiliates will also receive sub-affiliate revenues for Blackjack. Again, Blackjack revenues are only payable on MGR trackers. [/ QUOTE ] Notice the separate reporting for blackjack. That should prevent certain problems I was worried about. 
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#32
10-24-2005, 07:11 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
Its huge +EV for the player. You basically have a coin flip situation where you stand to win $200 or lose $160.
The problem is you can't exploit this other then making a 1 time bet.
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#34
10-25-2005, 03:49 AM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
So, if I follow this, a month where a player wins at blackjack does not reduce the mgr for poker, but for the affiliate to be paid for blackjack the next month, the player has to have a net loss at blackjack not just for that month, but for his lifetime of play at party BJ?
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#35
10-25-2005, 01:53 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The problem is you can't exploit this other then making a 1 time bet. [/ QUOTE ] Please explain... [/ QUOTE ] It's pretty simple. Let's extend the concept to two hands. Say you win the first hand, putting you at +200. Now, you bet again, and lose the second hand, putting you at 0. You don't make +200 the first hand, and -160 the second hand, because you only get 20% of your net loss back. So yeah, one hand is fine, but beyond that, it's still -EV.
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#36
10-25-2005, 04:40 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
Someone explain this:
Blackjack wagering by players Less Blackjack wins by player = Blackjack net revenue $$ ... so if I wager $200, and I win $200, that means my affiliates "Blackjack net revenue" is $0, not -$200? Unless I'm completely misreading it.
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#38
10-25-2005, 11:48 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The problem is you can't exploit this other then making a 1 time bet. [/ QUOTE ] Please explain... [/ QUOTE ] Actually, it will only work until you break even. If you lost $200 on your first bet, you can keep trying again and keep getting the 20% rakeback. True, if you hit a bad run of cards you could go broke fast, but you would keep getting the 20% until your MGR was positive again. Unless I'm missing something, which I very well could be. To me it seems that if you lost the first bet, the 2nd bet would have the same EV as the first one, just that if you keep losing you might never get back to even.
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#39
10-26-2005, 02:09 AM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
[ QUOTE ]
To me it seems that if you lost the first bet, the 2nd bet would have the same EV as the first one, just that if you keep losing you might never get back to even. [/ QUOTE ] If you lose the first bet, the next bet will not be +EV. The point is that winning the second bet will lose the rakeback you already earned. Individual bets are only +EV when your current cumulative result is breakeven. If you are ahead you cannot get rakeback on your losing bet. If you are behind you can get rakeback by losing but you can also lose rakeback by winning. All of this assumes the oversimplified model of blackjack in which each hand is an even-money bet on the flip of a coin that is slightly biased against you. It also assumes you bet as much as you can (how much is that?) because that is the optimal strategy. You maximize profit by maximizing variance. This analysis completely neglects a major issue. The player's normal disadvantage is very small. The player's advantage when he plays a rakeback-protected hand is large. It is +EV to play a second hand after you lose the first one. In exchange for a slight immediate disadvantage you gain a (nearly) 50% chance of returning to breakeven and getting another chance to play a high-EV protected hand. For the same reason it is +EV to play a second hand after winning the first one. You incur a slight immediate disadvantage but you get to play another rakeback-protected hand if you lose. Now mathematical induction kicks in. We just determined that it is +EV to play another hand when you are up a bet (+1) or down a bet (-1). It's not as +EV as playing a breakeven hand (0), but it's still more than the EV cost of normal blackjack. That makes it +EV to play +2 or -2 hands because you might get a chance to play a +1 or -1 hand. In fact you can keep playing until you are a fair distance from breakeven before the slight house edge outweighs the possibility that you might eventually work your way back to zero. You keep playing until you have won so much or lost so much that it is no longer +EV to continue. This strategy results in a substantial win or a substantial (rakeback-cushioned) loss. I suspect experienced BJ players intuitively recognize this. BJ is appealing to fish precisely because in the short run your chance of winning a lot of money is almost as high as your chance of losing a lot. The long run is a long way off and a 20% rebate on a losing session will allow you to play quite a lot of hands before the EV of the entire session becomes negative.
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#40
10-26-2005, 07:29 PM
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Re: Does Party Blackjack Affect MGR
My first signup so far has generated about $7xx in rake this month (according to Party's affiliate site), and according to him (I am 100% sure this is valid info), he won $3000 playing Party BJ a few days ago. Apparently, the BJ win has not been subtracted from the total MGR (yet).
Dan
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