Flopped trips in 6 max. Villain shows tremendous strength on turn.

[rikz]

Villain has been running well. I have not seen him bluff, but I have already folded once to an all-in river bet from this villain while I had TPWK, so I don't know if he was bluffing that time.

Since I sat down, he doubled up with a set versus an overpair and top two pair versus TPWK.

Comments on all streets welcome.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

BB ($4.5)
UTG ($26.7)
MP ($44.75)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($27.35)</font>
<font color="#C00000">SB Villain ($64.37)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB Villain posts a blind of $0.1.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">SB Villain raises to $0.9</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, Villain calls $3.

Turn: ($8.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Villain raises to $16</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero... ?</font>

[swolfe]

he has queens or AQ. probably queens.

open trips like this are not a very strong hand. it's too obvious. if you get action, it's either from a very weak player or someone that can beat TTTK.

[edge]

Hero goes all-in. Folding here would be ridiculous.

[kasey2004]

ya all in is your only choice and hope for no QQ

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
ya all in is your only choice and hope for no QQ

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate it when people give this kind of advice. poker is not about "hoping", it's about planning and reasoning out likely holdings for your opponents.

from the description, villain seems like a reasonably solid player. he's only gone to showdown with set or two pair.

what do we know?
<ul type="square">[*] villain raised from the SB
<font color="blue">from a solid player this usually means a premium hand: AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ</font> [*] villain showed strength on the turn when the queen showed
<font color="blue">implies: QQ/AQ, remotely possible AA/KK</font> [*] villain called a bet on the flop with an open pair
<font color="blue">implies: at least a PP over 8, remotely possible club draw</font> [/list]
the only two hands that make sense are AQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or QQ. QQ is more likely. i think AA/KK could be a possibility too, but not as likely.

[Malachii]

Hey swolfe....

I don't think Hero can possibly fold here getting 4-1 on his call and with his short stack. I don't think there's anyway Villain won't be bluffing, overplaying a marginal hand, or having a hand like KK or AA here less than 20% of the time, do you?

If Hero has 100 behind here than this would be different.

[swolfe]

also, i wasn't saying that hero is definitely dead here, just that we have to figure out what reasonable holdings villain may have and figure out a plan. it looks like our stack is going in here, so the plan has to keep in the hands that hero is beating. this means calling the turn, and calling the river when villain bets.

as was said above, pushing will make it too obvious. QQ will call and anything else should fold.

[Malachii]

In that case I agree with you 100%. Calling the turn raise and then calling no matter what/pushing if checked to is the way to go.

[kasey2004]

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ya all in is your only choice and hope for no QQ


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



i hate it when people give this kind of advice. poker is not about "hoping", it's about planning and reasoning out likely holdings for your opponents.

from the description, villain seems like a reasonably solid player. he's only gone to showdown with set or two pair.

what do we know?

villain raised from the SB
from a solid player this usually means a premium hand: AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ
villain showed strength on the turn when the queen showed
implies: QQ/AQ, remotely possible AA/KK
villain called a bet on the flop with an open pair
implies: at least a PP over 8, remotely possible club draw



[/ QUOTE ]

If i read the hand right, hero has like $15 dollars of his $27 he started the hand with facing an $8 raise... all im saying is his only play is all in ... and to hope that its AQ and not QQ

[Malachii]

The problem with going all in is that you lose any chance of snapping off a bluff on the river. Calling is the only way to keep him in the hand if he's pulling some crazy bluff here.