Can I raise this turn?

Erik779 · #1 12-08-2005, 05:09 AM

Typical opponents

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB raises, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG folds, Hero raises, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero raises ?

My plan:
If 3-bet, fold
If called, check behind river or fold

Peter Harris · #2 12-08-2005, 06:11 AM

i think that sounds okay. BB's raise could be anything like 77/88, AK-AT all of which you beat. SB could donk a lot there, i'd donk Tx which you outkick. Your line sounds acceptable as a 9 and 87 will 3bet against the flush draw, AT etc. will fear a 9...and some really strong hands will check behind even if a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] doesn't fall.

Have i been seduced by a weak line? I dont think so, but other replies would be goot.

JimNashe · #3 12-08-2005, 07:14 AM

This is a tough hand to analyze accurately, especially without reads.

But what does BB have? He raised preflop, called SB's bet and your raise on the flop and now when SB bets on the turn he calls. If I had 77 or 88 there, I'd have folded but then again if I had an overpair I'd have raised somewhere, so his play seems odd unless he specifically has suited overcards of hearts or if he is slowplaying 99 or TT.

In my estimation BB most likely has an overpair that he is playing cautiously. If not that then he has overcards, and they may be suited hearts.

SB could have anything on the flop, but after the action on the flop he comes out betting again on the turn, and in my opinion this makes the chance of him having a 9 quite high (or 78) because given the flop action it would be a bad idea to bet into both you and BB with air since it's unlikely that both of you are going to fold to a single bet. He might possibly have a T in which case you're hoping he has a worse kicker than you (T8, T7, T5, T4, T3 or T2) or he may have picked up a flush draw and decided to bet it.

Now, between the both of them I don't think you're gonna get a better hand to fold and I don't think you're ahead often enough for it to be a value raise, so I wouldn't raise.

I think I would call and then check/fold behind on the river if a non-T comes off.

Peter Harris · #4 12-08-2005, 07:22 AM

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This is a tough hand to analyze accurately, especially without reads.

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agreed.

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Now, between the both of them I don't think you're gonna get a better hand to fold and I don't think you're ahead often enough for it to be a value raise, so I wouldn't raise.

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The player is unsure if a raise is for value, but a 3-bet or flat call may help to define that further; if SB has the 9 or 78 a 3bet is almost certain, a flush draw or ten will call and check a non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] not T river. BB may not have an overpair, they may be just a calling station with AK. We can't assume it's an overpair as on a non-paired board flop we'd see most players raise SB's flop bet.

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I think I would call and then check/fold behind on the river if a non-T comes off.

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so you advocate to call getting 10-1 on a 22-1 draw? Surely that is not good advice.

JimNashe · #5 12-08-2005, 08:10 AM

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I think I would call and then check/fold behind on the river if a non-T comes off.

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so you advocate to call getting 10-1 on a 22-1 draw? Surely that is not good advice.

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I probably didn't express myself clearly enough. I don't advocate a call purely because I hope to catch a T, but different things might happen on the river when a non-T comes off which I think could give me equity enough to warrant a call on the turn:

1) If SB checks and BB checks, I'd check behind and win some of the time.

2) If SB checks and BB bets, I'd probably fold.

3) If SB bets, and BB folds, I might call.

4) And if SB bets and BB calls or raises, I'd definitely fold.

So my "check/fold behind on the river if a non-T comes off" was a gross simplification, and I've not sat down and worked out any estimates of percentages, but going by instinct a I think a call could be correct on the turn.

But I would certainly like to hear other people's analysis, as I wrote at the beginning this is a tough hand to analyze in my opinion so I could be way off.

Erik779 · #6 12-08-2005, 08:42 AM

During the hand I was quite sure BB had a lower pair or just
overcards. I was more worried about the SB.

Just some thinking about raising vs calling, Assuming im going to showdown:

If I raise and the SB has a nine or the straight he would 3-bet, so I could fold right away, costing me 2BB.

If he has a 10, with a better kicker. My raise I might get him to fold the best hand, afraid of me having a 9 or a straight.

If he calls my raise with his good 10, he will certainly check the river if he doesnt improve. I can then check behind. So 2BB as well

If I just call, and he has a good kicker, I belive he will bet the river as well, so it would cost me 2BB to call down.

If I just call, and he has a worse kicker, he might check the river, and I will check behind gaining nothing.

But if I raise the turn and he has a worse kicker I gain.

So by raising, I could get him to fold the best hand, get him to check a better 10 on the river + get value from a worse 10.

By calling, HE would get value from a better 10, and HE will loose less with a worse 10.

???

27offsooot · #7 12-08-2005, 07:51 PM

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I think I would call and then check/fold behind on the river if a non-T comes off.

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so you advocate to call getting 10-1 on a 22-1 draw? Surely that is not good advice.

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I probably didn't express myself clearly enough. I don't advocate a call purely because I hope to catch a T, but different things might happen on the river when a non-T comes off which I think could give me equity enough to warrant a call on the turn:

1) If SB checks and BB checks, I'd check behind and win some of the time.

2) If SB checks and BB bets, I'd probably fold.

3) If SB bets, and BB folds, I might call.

4) And if SB bets and BB calls or raises, I'd definitely fold.

So my "check/fold behind on the river if a non-T comes off" was a gross simplification, and I've not sat down and worked out any estimates of percentages, but going by instinct a I think a call could be correct on the turn.

But I would certainly like to hear other people's analysis, as I wrote at the beginning this is a tough hand to analyze in my opinion so I could be way off.

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I don't agree with 1. You should def bet when checked to on river. 3 and 4 contradict each other. BB's decision in this hand shouldn't affect ur decision. I don't think bb ever has an overpair, so u shouldn't mind overcalling at all.

I don't mean to be harsh, but i think this is kind of weak tight.

27offsooot · #8 12-08-2005, 07:47 PM

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In my estimation BB most likely has an overpair that he is playing cautiously. If not that then he has overcards, and they may be suited hearts.

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no.

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I think I would call and then check/fold behind on the river if a non-T comes off.

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no.
you can't c/f when u're in position and why are u calling the turn if u're going to fold the river?

#9 12-08-2005, 12:17 PM

--gruncher--

if we think SB is bluffing, then we should just call down. He could have a better T or even the 9, or on a bluff. Either way he's not afraid of this turn card. Also, you can't protect your tens from BB's overcards due to your relative position. I am just calling this turn, and reevaluating on the river.

#10 12-08-2005, 07:21 PM

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My plan:
If 3-bet, fold
If called, check behind river or fold

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Essentially, when your plan of action involves never betting the river, and there's not much chance to win the pot immediately, it's not a good time for a turn raise.

There is almost no advantage to this plan compared to just calling on the turn (again, unless you think you can pick up the pot right there). You are proposing to spend two big bets right now, with the possibility that you won't get to showdown and no possibility that you will make more bets when you are ahead. Whereas if you simply call on the turn, you can pretty much guarantee yourself a showdown for the same two bets. What's more, you might get to showdown for one big bet if you like, but if it's checked to you on the river, you can go ahead and bet to make up for the second bet on the turn. (This is where there is a slight advantage to raising the turn: if you think SB is on a heart draw, he will call your turn raise but not your river bet.) Meanwhile, if SB 3-bets you or bets the river, you are going to fold a hand that could be ahead.

The free showdown raise is best when your hand has showdown value already, but has a good chance to improve on the river. Most commonly this is because you have a pair and a draw. In that situation, you will want more than two bets going in on the turn and river when you hit your draw. So a turn raise will hopefully let you see a showdown for 2 bets when you don't hit, but make more bets when you do hit.