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#2
08-31-2005, 08:38 AM
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Re: -1.5 in baseball
I love runlines and typically bet a few each day. But I always take and never give the runs. I usually bet doggies and often split my action between straight bets and +1.5 runlines and that strategy certainly saved me yesterday.
I consider giving the -1.5 runs to be generally a sucker bet and usually -ev. There are of course exceptions but typically I find them to be the wrong side to be on from an edge standpoint. I have written some long extensive posts in the past with math and everything explaining this. If you search the archives maybe you'll find one. 
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#3
08-31-2005, 11:25 AM
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Re: -1.5 in baseball
I respect your experience, but in my short career of betting on baseball i find the opposite to be true. You might lose a few more bets, but the amount you get paid out at seems to pay for the extra lost bets. I don't care about winning percentage, only profit.
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#4
08-31-2005, 12:22 PM
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Re: -1.5 in baseball
[ QUOTE ]
I don't care about winning percentage, only profit. [/ QUOTE ] Me too! You asked for thoughts and I gave them. I think laying runs is a chump bet in most cases because most gamblers underestimate the power of the 1.5 runs and also overestimate favorites who are the ones who have to lay the runs. This skews the lines making the bets laying runs less efficient than the side getting the runs.
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#5
08-31-2005, 01:10 PM
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Re: -1.5 in baseball
I very rarely use runlines (maybe 2-4 times a week), but I as well have found the opposite of what you are saying to be true. I can't ever find value with the way you suggest. Laying runs has shown the same value as my moneylines and over/unders in baseball over the past few years, so I am quite certain that they can be profitable this way.
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#6
08-31-2005, 01:10 PM
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Re: -1.5 in baseball
[ QUOTE ]
I respect your experience, but in my short career of betting on baseball i find the opposite to be true. You might lose a few more bets, but the amount you get paid out at seems to pay for the extra lost bets. I don't care about winning percentage, only profit. [/ QUOTE ] Interesting. You ask for help and get an opinion from one of the most experienced and knowlegable posters on this forum, and then have the temerity to correct him! What gall! bill
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#7
08-31-2005, 02:01 PM
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Re: -1.5 in baseball
Is Mr baseball saying that he doesn't like the +1.5 runline? I hate +1.5 runline for the underdog, but I love better the -1.5 runline for the favorite.
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#8
08-31-2005, 02:23 PM
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Re: -1.5 in baseball
There are times when it's advantageous, but most the time it is not because the vig is higher and shopping isn't as easy. By using the ML and Total you can convert it to what the true RL should be using a historical database and you'll know whether the ML or RL is a better bet.
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#10
08-31-2005, 06:03 PM
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Re: -1.5 in baseball
I don't agree with him then. You stated that he is a "genius" at this whole sports betting thing. How so, what is his record?
My real big stiff with +1.5 is you only get a 1 run handicap. Most games aren't won/lost by 1 run, unless the astros/twins/nats are playing. I'd really like to see your math behind it mrbaseball. I've made all these runline picks and I think the team I bet on is either gonna lose, or win by 2 runs. I haven't yet lost a runline bet because the team only won by 1 run Redsox over Drays -1.5 -125/-120 Padres over Dbacks -1.5 +165 Braves over Nationals -1.5 +150 Astros over Reds -1.5 +140 Indians over Detroit -1.5 +125 Mets over Phillies -1.5 +125
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