Flopped trips with a weak ace?

[dtbog]

Not much in the way of reads, except that there haven't been many preflop raises at this table, and I've been seeing a lot of cheap flops.

2/4 blinds NL, Pokerstars

Hero ($450) calls $4 in MP with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

LP1 ($150) raises ($16), CO ($350) calls, Button ($250) calls, folds, Hero calls.

Flop ($70): A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

... what to do?

Anyone have a standard line from here?

-dB

[Godfather80]

At a table that hasn't been very aggressive pre-flop, do you really have to limp then call a raise from an LP that has already gotten two callers. I would assume from that line, that I was behind a better ace.

But, you called, and hit a dynamite flop. So, it's time to lead out with a 2/3 of pot bet. If you get raised, you've got to fold.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
At a table that hasn't been very aggressive pre-flop, do you really have to limp then call a raise from an LP that has already gotten two callers. I would assume from that line, that I was behind a better ace.

But, you called, and hit a dynamite flop. So, it's time to lead out with a 2/3 of pot bet. If you get raised, you've got to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, you got my thought process exactly -- that's what I did, and they all folded.

Do you really fold AT suited here, though, in a 4-way pot where you're closing the action?

-dB

[Godfather80]

It's funny, I started thinking about that as well.

You were getting almost 5:1 odds on the call preflop after the raise. Assuming that at least one of those hands beats your kicker and another is a higher ace, then I don't think 5:1 is enough. From twodimes, you are 12.8% to win against AQo, JJ, and 88.

However, if someone doesn't have a pocket pair that beats your kicker, then I think ATs is enough. From twodimes, you are 20.8% to win against AQo, 88, 55.

Unscientifically, I just averaged those two together to get 16.8%. Which, amazingly is almost exactly the percentage you need when getting 5:1.

Well played? I think: probably yes.

[xcrack999]

I'm guessing this was a full table?

You're going to win a small pot if no one has the other ace, or you'll lose big if someone has a better ace. What's worse is that you'll be acting first for the rest of the hand. I think I bet close to the pot here and see the action behind me. If there's a raise and a call, a raise and a reraise, or even two calls, I don't see how you can be ahead here unless you found the best table in the world.

[dtbog]

Yes, full 9-handed table on Stars.

[ QUOTE ]
You're going to win a small pot if no one has the other ace, or you'll lose big if someone has a better ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I'm not saying that I have a strong hand here -- in fact, I have one of the most overvalued hands in Texas Hold'em.

The fact remains, though, that I must decide on a line when this flop comes out. Check/fold and c/r are obviously trash here, so I bet.

I like a smaller-than-pot-sized bet, though, and here's why. As we've said, if someone raises, I'll have to fold.(barring an extraordinary read which I obviously don't have) In addition, if an LP player smooth-calls, I'm now playing a larger pot than is necessary, out of position with an iffy hand. A smaller bet on this particular flop should elicit the same responses from other players, without putting as much money in the pot.

With respect to the flush draw, I think there are two kinds of players at this level -- those who will call no matter what on the FD here because they see "infinite implied odds" with the ace paired, or those who will fold to a bet, no matter how small, because the board is paired. (does anyone disagree with this?)

In summary, what do you think of a 1/2 pot or 2/3 pot bet?

-dB

[BBD]

I think I'd bet the pot here.

[Godfather80]

what does betting the pot do that betting 2/3 of the pot doesn't. Both give draws the wrong odds and both will have to be ditched if raised. Therefore, if you choose to make a pot sized bet, you are simply risking more to win the same amount. Betting the pot has lower EV than betting 2/3 of the pot.

[Rococo]

If the table is reasonably tight, I probably check fold here. If it checks around, I bet pot on the river.

[soah]

A free card is very unlikely to hurt you here. You'd love for KQ to catch its gutshot on the turn. The only other gutshots are KT and QT which are each unlikely in a raised pot (plus you hold one of the tens). The ace and jack of spades are each on the board, which eliminates many of the potential flush draws.

If you check here you may gain a lot of information about your opponents' hands. If there is heavy action you can fold. If everyone checks, you can lead at the turn and possibly get some action from a jack or from KK/QQ. By leading the flop you have basically reduced your hand to 32o, as you have no intention of making it to showdown (this is not entirely true, as someone may call your flop bet and then check behind on the turn and river with something you can beat).

I believe there is quite a bit of merit to checking and calling a reasonable bet on the flop, and then seeing what happens on the turn... especially against tight, rational opponents. They will have a hard time firing again on the turn if they do not have AK/AQ/AJ/JJ. Obviously though you only want to take this line if you have a very good read on your opponents, as it would be a disaster to end up folding the best hand on the turn. (An aggressive opponent may put you on a flush draw and decide to bet the turn with just KK or something, and that would suck.)

By leading the flop you take away all opportunity to extract any money from anything you beat (unless a flush draw chases... which is actually rather unpleasant for you, since that flush draw may decide to bluff you out of the pot if you completely shut down after the flop). Checking greatly increases the chances that you will get some money in the pot the times that you do hold the best hand.

This all assumes that you can play well postflop against these opponents. If this is not the case, then I think you should fold to the preflop raise, as you already know that you will be out of position with a hand that is generally going to flop a marginal made hand, or a draw.

All that said though, leading the flop is certainly not a bad play. Leading into the PFR may seem a bit suspicious, but you're showing enough strength that it will be difficult for anyone to try to put a move on you. It would be a rather poor play for anyone to risk their stack to find out if you really have an ace. But I think checking is a valid move as well in many cases, either because you know your opponents won't bluff (and you can get away from the hand) or because they are too aggressive and you can try to pick off a bluff.