AJs out of position against good player

[SomethingClever]

Reads: MP3 seems to be a good player; everyone else is pretty dumb.

Fold to the flop raise? 3-bet? Call and check-raise the turn? What's the best line?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO folds, Hero calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (9.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 9.50 BB, won by MP3.</font>
<font color="green">Pot 2: 1 BB, returned to MP3.</font>

[Nottom]

No real draws out there for him to be raising so he likely has a legit hand therefore I think check-folding the turn seems like the best course of action.

[MicroBob]

agree with nottom.

this is almost straight out of SSHE where Ed states (something like) that on an uncoordinated board like this one you need to be more afraid of the raise here.

if it was coordinated, then you would have better reason to stay in because he COULD be on some kind of a draw.....thus you COULD have a reasonable chance of winning this hand.

ed says that folding to the raise on the flop can sometimes look conspicuous and lead to players taking shots at you.

i think you can still strongly consider folding the flop here though....as long as you don't do it too often.

but definitely check-fold the turn.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
i think you can still strongly consider folding the flop here though....as long as you don't do it too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, there are too many cards that will make me happy on the turn to fold (3 As and 4 Qs) the pot is peretty big so I'm not letting go yet.

[MicroBob]

that's what i thought....just thought i'd throw that out there.

in a significantly smaller pot it would become more correct to at least consider letting go i think.

but for one more bet i agree you have to see another one.

[Luv2DriveTT]

MP3 only called pre-flop so either he had Kx, x9, x2, or 22 in the pocket (he probably doesn't have 99 unless he is passive).

You only have one overcard, the king is the second best overcard in the deck. Backdoor flush &amp; Backdoor straight give you 2-3 outs, and take another 1.5 outs for the Ace (discounting the other 1.5 Ace outs because someone probably has an Ace with 7 players on the flop after a PFR).

Not enough outs to play this hand in my opinion... check / fold on the flop. I know this goes against what everyone else will advise, but I think I'm right this time.

In da club [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[iceman19]

Can anyone tell me the point of leading out on the flop? What does it accomplish?

[cold_cash]

It accomplishes telling everyone that "I have AA, KK, or AK".

MP3's subsequent raise means either "So what?" or "No you don't".

[Gatts]

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone tell me the point of leading out on the flop? What does it accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

What cold_cash said.

You're representing a monster, and if someone raises you, they don't care what the hell you got.

K9 or 22 seems the likeliest candidates. When the brick hits on the turn, I'm cutting my losses.