All-in on the flop calculations

[Supern]

Let's say you have a flushdraw with 2 OC's with: AK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Flop is: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

You semibluff bet and opponent raises all-in.
Lets say the pot is $19 and you have to call is another $10.

That means you have to win 34% of the time to break even.
If he has TP: T9o you win 53% of the time.
If he has top two: 98o you win 31% of the time.
If he has a set: 99 you win 25% of the time.
So far so good.

How do you weight these possibilites when considering the call?
I include the chance of him bluffing by increasing the chance of him having TP (by 5%).

If I think OP is passive I would use TP-15%, TopTwo-20%, Set-65% and get:
15%*53% + 20%*31% + 65%*25% = 29%

Meaning I have to win 29% of the time -> fold.

If I think OP is aggresive I would use TP-40%, TopTwo-40%, Set-20% and get:
40%*53% + 40%*31% + 25%*25% = 35%

This time I win 35% of the time so I might consider a call.

Is this the way to think about it?
What I am interested to know is the weights I use is ok for making an estimate. How conservative are you guys use at these occations? A draw against a made hand.

[Supern]

You guys don't think like this?

[theredpill9]

In this situation, it's better if you are the one pushing all-in rather than calling. I do think this way. I think I would most likely call with a hand like that.

[Supern]

I'm asking when you are faced with an all-in and you have some kind of draw hand.
These calculations should be made I think.

[theredpill9]

You were getting 2 to 1. All-in on the flop. You don't really need all those calculations here besides, you can't make all those calculations in 10 seconds. 2 to 1 on the flop and you possibly have 15 outs. Easy call. Very easy. You are 2 to 1 to hit the flush alone and then add 6 more outs to that. Easy.

[Supern]

When playing online it is very easy to make these calculations.
All you need is an Excel spreadsheet.

[theredpill9]

AND.....

So how do you do it ?

[Supern]

It is very easy to do.
The hard part is knowing the possibilty they
are going all-in with TP, Two pair or a set.
Or if they bluff.

[fimbulwinter]

1. this is a very good post. i can see you're thinking hard about the game and this is just the kind of analysis that goes into being a winning player in bigger games with better players.

however

2. you describe a situation that good players will not get themselves into. in general, making a semibluff such that you will call when your opponent raises and he will fold all other times is bad poker. at that point, overbetting the pot all-in is the correct answer, as the real thing that makes these situations (strong, non-made hands) profitable is all the times he folds and gives you the money in the pot. These are ev mistakes on his part and this is what we want.

3. your numbers are pretty far off for a pot like the one you describe (i'm assuming a raised pot at something like a 25NL game.) sets aren't everywhere and you're actually rooting to see an overpair here (TT-AA) which you didn't even consider in your calculation.

bottom line is this. getting 2:1 on your money you'd never fold this hand. you have the learned portion down (calculating ev properly) but are lacking a little in the experience department. that said if you keep going like this you'll be a very solid winning player in big games soon.

fim

[fimbulwinter]

supern- you seem new, so i'll explain one more thing. theredpill is a troll that has been banned many times and contributes nothing to these forums. he is best dealt with by simply ignoring him, or, alternately, if he insults you, notifying a moderator of his post so he can get banned again and leave the forum in peace for a while.

fim