What are my chances in Stars 500k ? :)

[punter11235]

I thought about this question.
I am winning 5/10NL player. I have little experience in tourneys (althoughh I made a few ft's in my life). So its reasonable that I am way better than casual tourney fish but way worse than any competent tourney player. What do you think are my chances to win this thing ? More specifically. If N is number of ppl in, my chances are above or below 1/N ? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]