How to play with 2 cards to come?

[Sandwich]

Here is a situation that comes up rather frequently, and I'm not sure if I'm really grasping the concept of pot odds on a straight draw when there are two cards to come. Wondering if I am playing this correctly??


2/4 Limit Hold 'em, typical loose game. I am dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in middle position. Unraised pot. Four see the flop: BB, EP, me and LP. $9 in the pot.

Flop is 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

BB checks. EP bets $2 to me. I have a draw to the nut straight, and no flush on the board. Because there is $11 in the pot (and two others yet to act), and the odds of me hitting my inside straight draw with two cards to come is about 5:1, I call the bet for $2.

LP folds. BB calls for $2. Three of us see the turn.

Turn is: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

No help to my draw, but so far no flush and no full house on the board. BB checks. EP bets $4 to me. Now I'm looking at a pot of $19 (with BB yet to act), and the odds of me hitting my inside straight draw are over 10:1. I fold.

Did I play this correctly? Am I making an error by calling the bet on the flop? Should I foresee that I will not have the correct odds to draw after the turn, and adjust my play accordingly? How?

Thanks.

[QnA]

Flop calls for a fold. You should be calculating the odds for only 1 card, not 2. So odds of you hitting your gutshot are not 5:1 but more like 10.5:1. This is an easy fold.

[bisonbison]

I'd fold this preflop, which makes the flop decision easier.

[spamuell]

Read Nottom's post in this thread. I think this answers your question. Note where he says:

You should normally only look at the odds to complete on the next card when you are drawing.

This is the important part, as you're usually going to have to pay more on the turn so you can't figure your odds with two cards to come only counting the flop bet.

[The Dude]

In MP with only one limper ahead of you, JTo is an easy fold preflop. But since you're already in...

You can only calculate your odds for two cards to come if you are almost certain you're going to see the river. If not, you have to take it one street at a time. In this case, you're almost 12:1 against hitting your straight, so you have to fold. Open-ended straight draws on rainbow flops or flush draws can be calculated with 2 cards to come, but not gut-shot straights, as you found out here.

[BIGRED]

I'm no expert, but I think this is an Implied Odds question.
Also, I'm not stats expert so, don't hold me to my analysis.

To see if it's worth it for you make the flop call, you need to consider the situation when the turn card isn't what you needed... in this case a King.

In the example you gave all 4 Kings are good since there is no flush out there, so the probability that you will get your King by the river is

Prob you get it on the turn + Prob you get it on the river
= 4/47 + 4/46
= about 17% (I'm pretty sure this is right)

If the turn card wasn't a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and you had to account for the possible flush draw then the prob is

4/47 + 3/46 = about 15%

Let's just go with the 17% since that's consistent with the example you gave.

With 17% (about 1 out of 6) chance of you getting the King by the river, you need to figure to win a pot that is at least 6x the amount you will have to put in the pot from that point on, i.e $2 for the flop, $4 for the turn, and $4 for the river, $10 all together, assuming no raises.

So when everything is over, you need to make sure that the pot is about $60 for you to make the call "correct" on the flop, (if you think you need a straight to win).

With $9 in the pot after the flop, you need to consider how many will stay to the river and if the pot will grow to the about $60 with the remaining players. Since not all 4 will stay to the end, I guess it's difficult to say.

Let's assume the best case scenario, which is that everybody will stay to the river with no raises. That means everybody will put in $10 each by the showdown. That's $40 plus $9 in the pot currently, which gives you $49.

So even in the best case scenario, $9 in the pot now does not give you enough of a head start for you to make the flop call.

DID I GET THIS RIGHT????

[Ken Morris]

[ QUOTE ]

Prob you get it on the turn + Prob you get it on the river
= 4/47 + 4/46
= about 17% (I'm pretty sure this is right)


[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with your analysis (i.e. fold), but your calculation is not quite right. The proper approach is to calculate the percentage of time you will NOT catch on the turn AND not catch on the river: (43/47) * (42/46), then subtract that from 1. You'll make the straight about 16.5% of the time, or slightly less than your calculation. Although the difference isn't significant on a 4-outer, it becomes more of a factor with more outs. Consider an OE str8/flush combination (15 outs).

Incorrect: 15/47 + 15/46 = 65%
Correct: 1-((32/47) * (31/46)) = 54%

About 2/3 of the time vs. about 1/2 the time begins to matter.

[lil']

First, I think you should fold pre-flop. But anyway...

Because there is $11 in the pot (and two others yet to act), and the odds of me hitting my inside straight draw with two cards to come is about 5:1, I call the bet for $2.

Ah, but you are going to pay more than $2 to see that river, aren't you? You are going to pay $2 for the turn, and likely have to pay $4 to see the river. That changes the math quite a bit.

Fold the flop.

[BIGRED]

I see that your formula is correct, but why doesn't my formula work out to the same number as yours? What am I factoring in that causes me to come out higher?

[Sandwich]

Thanks to everyone who responded. I'm sure that my calling a flop bet using the odds for two cards to come was a significant leak in my game...

I had already calculated odds for all number of outs for (1) two cards to come before the turn and (2) next card before the river.

It looks like I need to calculate odds for all number of outs for NEXT card before the turn.

Is there any online resource (chart or table) that has this info? Thanks.